Jaya jaya jaya he!

Jaya jaya jaya he!

Never before has AIADMK chief Jayalalitha exuded so much confidence. She has succeeded in giving the impression that her front has a strong edge over the DMK-led NDA front. In contrast the rival camp seems almost paralysed in the wake of PMK leader Dr Ramadoss shifting camps.

Ironically while Karunanidhi keeps reiterating that he had foreseen quite some time ago the PMK’s defection, he does not seem to have embarked on any significant exercise to offset the loss, but for his tentative efforts to woo TMC leader G K Mooppanar back into his fold.

When it comes to fighting back, Jaya never gives up even when her situation looks impossibly hopeless. Having been humbled in the 1996 General Elections and fighting a slew of corruption cases, she then sought out all those opposed to Karunanidhi and forged an alliance in double quick time.

She had no hesitation in swallowing her pride and calling on the likes of MDMK general secretary Vaiko and Ramadoss, who had excoriated her in the vilest possible terms. If Vaiko had taken out a long march to denounce her, Ramadoss had used all unprintable words against her.

More than most she surprised the entire country by striking an alliance with the BJP, throwing into the winds all claims of AIADMK being a party subscribing to Periyar’s ideology. She had accorded the BJP the political respectability it was badly looking for in Tamil Nadu.

It could have back-fired. But it did not. She along with the other friends of the BJP comfortably sailed through the winds of 1998 elections thanks to the blasts and the communal violence in Coimbatore which preceded the polling. But she squandered away the wonderful opportunities she had as the leader of the second largest constituent of the BJP-led coalition thanks to her own mercurial temper. In the Lok Sabha elections that followed, her front barely managed to win half of its previous tally and she also lost all the three assembly by-elections that followed.

To add to her woes she has been convicted in two corruption cases, one sentence actually disqualifying her from contesting elections for another six years.

Not a very happy scenario that certainly. But she had certain advantages. Since opposed to the BJP, the CPM and the CPI had no hesitation in joining hands with her. And with the TMC and the Congress realising the futility of a third front in Tamil Nadu’s electoral politics, joined in.

Even the caste arithmetic seems to be working in her favour.

If Thevars, the powerful backward caste grouping in the southern region is almost safe in AIADMK’s kitty, an alliance with the PMK will help her gain ground in the north and northwest Tamil Nadu where electoral fortunes are decided by the Vanniyars, the caste group which forms the political base of PMK.

If the TMC and the Congress chose to object because of the PMK’s pro-LTTE leanings, so be it, she decided. While the TMC’s support base might be a bit more widespread, it is the PMK’s which is that much more solid and proven time and again.

While she would certainly like to bring in each and every vote from whichever corner she could manage, when forced to choose between the TMC and the PMK, she had little hesitation in plumping for the latter. With as much contempt she dismissed the TMC’s demand for power-sharing, she also forged the alliance with the PMK without consulting the Congress or the TMC. And it looks like the two Congresses see the writing on the wall and could choose to stick to the AIADMK, for sheer want of an other option. What with the apparent anti-incumbency factor, the front fashioned by Jayalalitha seems quite formidable.DMK leader Karunanidhi is cool or gives the impression he is not worried. Knowing very well that the AIADMK-PMK can be a deadly combination, he has the option of bringing to his fold the two Dalit parties Puthiya Tamilagam (PT) and Dalit Panthers (DPI).

Before formation of his party PT, K Krishnasamy was an active student leader with a marxist background. He had had a brief stint in the DMK too and fought an election on a DMK ticket.

His party representing the Pallars, a Dalit sect concentrated in the southern districts, has proved its hold over them in the last two Lok Sabha elections.

He has said that he would consider an invitation from the DMK positively. DMK too need PT’s backing because another Backward community of Thevars have identified themselves with AIADMK for a simple reason: Jayalalitha’s close confidente Sasikala is a Thevar, though it might be an exaggeration to say all the Thevars are ranged against the DMK. The Dalit Panthers of India, presently an ally of the TMC, could also switch over to the DMK camp for its very existence is predicated on anti-PMK politics.

DPI’s role will help the DMK offset the PMK’s loss to some extent. Pariars, another sect of Dalits in northern districts forms the base for DPI. Some feel that the DMK with the BJP and the two Dalit parties could still confidently take on the AIADMK front.

If some fringe caste organisations who seem to have acquired some political muscle also throw in their lot with the DMK, this front could become a powerful player in its own way.

All the same it is advantage Jayalalitha at the moment.