When Bush comes to shove

When Bush comes to shove

The Bush administration has decided, to the dismay of Japan and the Europeans, to abandon the Kyoto agreement on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases. This striking reversal of the American position comes close on the heels of other decisions. They mark a sharp break with the approach of the previous Clinton administration in a number of areas. It is worth trying to understand the thinking within the new government as revealed by these startling new departures. Prior to the Kyoto bombshell, came the signal that Washington did not intend to stand by agreements with North Korea and that it disapproved of South Korea’s policy of finding a modus vivendi with the totalitarian regime in Pyongyang. From the sudden end to funding for international family planning programmes involving abortion to the determined pursuit of internationally destabilising missile defence systems, the message is George W. Bush is prepared to back out of international commitments when he deems itnecessary.

That, in turn, points to a conception of American national interests very different from what the world had grown used to over the last few years. A close look at why the US rejects the Kyoto protocol is instructive. Officials insist Washington continues to take the threat of global warming seriously and its quarrel is with Kyoto. Conservatives, among others, object to the treaty on three grounds: economic, the belief that national interest and not idealism should drive government decisions and sovereignty issues. It is argued that millions of jobs will be lost and energy prices will shoot up if the US cuts emissions to 7 per cent of 1990 levels; that the treaty will be ineffective as long as large developing countries like India and China are exempt from restrictions on emissions; and that the UN should not be given oversight of US policy.

The difference between the liberal and conservative viewpoint comes out sharply in the approach to developing countries. During his visit to India President Clinton keenly pursued joint India-US projects to reduce emissions in India. For India, it was explained, the benefit would be cleaner air and the US, as Kyoto allows, would be able to reduce its own commitments to cut emissions by an equivalent amount. Conservatives reject such pollution bargains and prefer a straightforward set of restrictions for all.

But it has to be asked whether Bush is in fact concerned about air pollution. There must be serious doubts about that since he reneged on a campaign promise to seek reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from US power plants. Evidently Bush puts the profitability of coal, oil and power companies ahead of clean air at home. And he puts American interests, narrowly defined, ahead of America’s international responsibilities. The early impression is that this is a hard-headed, inward-looking, business-driven administration. Jaswant Singh might think of all this as he prepares to leave for Washington to meet Colin Powell and discuss the lifting of US sanctions and technology and trade issues.