20% of Japan’s population expected to contract swine flu

About 25 million people,or some 20 per cent of Japan's population,are expected to become infected with swine flu,the government said in a disturbing forecast.

About 25 million people,or some 20 per cent of Japan’s population,are expected to become infected with swine flu,the government said today in a disturbing forecast.

Some 380,000 people,or 1.5 per cent of the anticipated cases,are expected to be hospitalised and 40,000 people,or 0.15 per cent,are expected to develop serious symptoms like encephalopathy or need to be aided by respirators,according to an estimate of the Ministry of Health,Labour and Welfare.

The ministry anticipates that the peak of the epidemic will come around late September to early October in Japan.

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Some regions,including urban areas where the population is concentrated and rural areas with many elderly people,may see more than 30 per cent of their populations infected,according to the estimates.

In those areas,the rate of hospitalisation may hit 2.5 per cent and the percentage of serious cases of infections may reach 0.5 per cent.

“The figures do not take into consideration the effects of vaccinations. Actual figures will be affected largely by contact between people in each community and weather conditions,” a ministry official said.

“But the situation may turn worse if the virus becomes more virulent,” the official said.

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Also on Friday,the ministry has asked prefectural governments to expedite preparations to deal with the epidemic,Kyodo news agency reported.

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