To use American President George Bush’s famously improvised verb, don’t misunderestimate the ayatollahs of non-proliferation. Yes, the so-called 123 Agreement — the text of which was made public by the US and Indian governments yesterday — was finalised two weeks ago, after nine rounds of intense negotiation. The agreement effectively consummates the bilateral nuclear deal unveiled by President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh two years ago. Calculated leaks of the 123 Agreement’s contents by the Indian government resulted in positive reviews from many erstwhile detractors. The Hindu, citing “senior officials”, reported last week that the agreement fulfilled “all the assurances Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gave Parliament in August 2006”. The vociferous nuclear scientists have also acquiesced. “Prima facie, it looks like a victory for India,” said Indian Nuclear Society President Placid Rodrigues. M.R. Srinivasan, the former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, previously a scathing critic of the deal, agreed: “I think it is a good package. I think India’s vital concerns have been finally addressed.”

But the Indian satisfaction could also spell difficulties for the deal’s future. Assuming the conclusion of a satisfactory Indian arrangement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and following the approval of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the 123 Agreement will have to be ratified by the US Congress for active civil nuclear cooperation between the US and India to begin. Bush’s weak political stock as well as further concessions granted to India in the 123 Agreement means that US critics of the deal, largely silenced following the overwhelming passage of the enabling legislation by Congress last year, are regrouping.

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