Opinion A new line in the sand

Behind the fanfare,however,are the complications associated with the birth of a nation.

The idea has been germinating for years. The referendum was born out of a peace that ended Africa’s longest civil war. The peace agreement between Khartoum and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) agreed that with a 60 per cent majority in a referendum,the south would be free.

The southerners are African Christians with longstanding grievances. It is tempting to glance merely at the colonial period,where borders were created with little sensitivity to ground realities. But the southerners look back further,to almost two centuries of northern (Arab Muslim) injustice. They allege that the Arab north oppressed the south,and raided it throughout the 18th century for slaves.

Matters were exacerbated by the policies of Sudan’s current president,Omar al-Bashir,a northern career soldier with Islamist leanings who developed the north at the south’s expense. Though the majority of Sudan’s oilfields are in the south,its infrastructure is in the North. Through Sudan’s turbulent recent history,as Darfur trials continued,its economy grew — but almost all of this growth has been centred in the north. Ninety per cent of the south lives on less than $1 a day even as Khartoum in the north mimics a modern Arabian metropolis.

Calls for secession have been sounded since the departure of the British,but it was only under the leadership of Salva Kiir,a cowboy hat-wearing,charcoal bearded ex-rebel,that progress has been made. One of the founders of the political wing of the SPLA,Kiir has governed the south with a tight fist. A member of the Dinka tribe,the largest in southern Sudan,he has managed to keep the second most powerful tribe,the Nuer,appeased.

Despite his success,the south he inherits is a state verging on collapse. Roughly the size of France,it has less than 65 km of paved roads; one in 10 children dies in infancy; and one in seven women dies during pregnancy. Eighty per cent of adults are illiterate. This is one of the least developed areas of the world,its dire situation evidenced by the childlike referendum voting cards: just a Yes or a No,and a hand for secession and closed fist for unity. Bashir,merely four days prior to the referendum said,“The south suffers from many problems. It’s been at war since 1959. It does not have the ability to provide for its citizens or create a state or authority.”

The problems do not end there. There is also the issue of the rebel armies. The new state will have to grapple with individual militias that are already vying for control. Just prior to the referendum two militia leaders,David Yauyau and Gatlauk Gal,attempted to derail the process.

Then there is the issue of Abyei,the central oil production site. The peace agreement was to settle the issue,but one thorn in the process has been the Arab-origin Misseriya tribe which has traditionally used the lands for grazing. A 2009 ruling from The Hague ruled that the Misseriya be excluded from the referendum,unacceptable to both Khartoum and the tribe. Analysts predict that,should a war restart in Sudan,the casus belli will most likely be Abyei.

The agreement mandates that,post-referendum,both sides,north and south,share oil revenue. But the south inherits the oilfields while the north will control infrastructure. Squabbles as to how the revenue will be divided have stalled progress.

This is where international powers can play a major role. The Obama administration has made Sudan a foreign policy goal; the African Union has acted as mediator; and Qatar has been hosting peace talks. China,a major oil purchaser,is also in the picture.

Partition always causes refugees. Thousands have started moving south,both for the vote and due to intimidation by northerners. A six-month period has been allotted to accommodate new settlers; this will be the biggest challenge for the new country. Our own history and that of the Balkans shows the partition of a land makes neighbours strangers. Now,more than ever,a tool needs to be yanked out,one seldom used in Sudan: diplomacy.

alia.allana@expressindia.com