As China prepares to greet the Year of the Ox in 2009, it is likely that it will do so with mixed sentiments. As per the Chinese year of the zodiac, the ox is seen as a symbol of great strength and determination. But it is also known to possess an uncertain temperament and can quickly rise to anger and prove stubborn. And these indeed are uncertain times in China. As it struggles with the spectre of an economic slowdown, there will be many in the country who will wonder if they are ushering a bull into the China shop.

There are enough reasons to warrant this pessimism. For an economy whose obsession with growth has been all-consuming, China today is grappling with the contradictions of its astonishing growth story. It is expected that China will breach the critical psychological benchmark of 8 per cent growth this year. Maintaining this level has been an almost obsessive fixation for China’s policy-makers.

There are good reasons for this: a slowing economy will inevitably bring with it the problem of spare hands and China is bracing up for sharp spikes in job losses. It is estimated that a drop of 1 per cent in the growth rate will push 8 million into the ranks of the unemployed. The current official urban unemployment rate of 4 per cent is seriously questioned within China, with some estimates putting the real figure as high as 12 per cent. By late last year, nearly 4 million migrant workers, who lost their jobs, headed back to Henan province to a bleak future. Henan and its returning migrants is a weathervane for the economy, being one of China’s most populous provinces and a major reserve pool of labour. Beijing will also keep a wary eye on the rising numbers of the educated unemployed.

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