Nuclear ambiguity

In a punchline, Pang Sen adds, “When a gigantic and growing economy defies the world and demonstrates its nuclear abilities, economic might wins out in the end”.

India’s rise and its nuclear differentiation from Pakistan, however, is a major concern for China. “Pakistan, India’s neighbour and rival, clearly has reason to worry”, the ‘Review’ says.”Regional stability and the global non-proliferation regime would have been better served”, Pang Sen argues by quoting Islamabad’s reaction, “if the US had considered a package approach for both India and Pakistan, which conducted its first nuclear weapon tests two weeks after India”.”China hopes the NSG will equally address the aspirations of all parties (read Pakistan) for the peaceful use of nuclear power”, he said. “Only time will tell”, the analysis concludes on an ambiguous note, “Whether the NSG decision would turn out to be a blessing or a blow to the international non-proliferation regime”.

Engaging Kayani

It stands to reason that the implications of the Indo-US nuclear deal must have figured prominently in Pakistan Army Chief, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani’s trip to China last week.

Gen. Kayani was ostensibly there to observe the People’s Liberation Army’s exercises called “Warrior 2008”. The visit, however, was important enough for Gen. Kayani to head to Beijing within hours after the Marriott hotel bombing in Islamabad.

During his five day visit to China, Gen. Kayani met with the top Chinese leadership. The Chinese defence minister, Liang Guanglie was quoted as telling Gen. Kayani that “China will further strengthen Sino-Pakistani ties and relations between the two armed forces” in the changed circumstances. New Delhi, naturally, would look beyond these boilerplate statements to assess how exactly China might compensate Pakistan after India’s successful civil nuclear initiative. Despite Islamabad’s hopes that China might sell new nuclear reactors to Pakistan, there is no evident way in which Beijing can get a deal similar to that the NSG has approved for India.

Gen. Kayani is more likely to have discussed the longer term strategic and military consequences of the Indo-US nuclear deal for China and Pakistan. Amidst mounting tension with the United States and growing gap with India, the Pak Army is looking for strong security assurances from its ‘all weather friend’, China.

For Beijing, the challenge in turn, lies in maintaining what it might see as a necessary balance, nuclear and military, between India and Pakistan. India, on its part, would closely monitor the planned visits of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani to China in the coming weeks.

Burma grip

In a study released Monday, EarthRights International, a Western NGO, has drawn attention to a dramatic surge in the presence of Chinese multinational corporations in Burma over the last one year.

In what has been billed as the most comprehensive survey of Chinese investment in Burma, the ERI points to 69 Chinese MNC’S involved in 90 completed, current and planned projects in the hydropower, mining and resource extraction sectors in Burma. Earlier ERI research done during 2007 had identified only 26 Chinese companies pursuing 62 projects.

The ERI report comes only a few days after the Burmese government confirmed that Chinese state-controlled China Non-Ferrous Metal Group will proceed to mine nickel in the Mandalay region. Analysts say this US $ 600 million dollar venture could be one of the largest contracts in Burma that could export up 40 million tons of nickel ore.

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohan@ntu.edu.sg