On American Idol,shifts in power,not talent

It was characteristic Cowell straight talk,but also an implicit swipe at one of the problems facing Idol at the beginning of its twilight: its apparent inability to mint longstanding stars. Only two of the eight Idol winners,Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood,have sustained long careers after kicking off the Idol training wheels. The show remains the gold standard for television juggernauts,but as talent scouting goes,it’s about average.

Of the 24 semifinalists—back to the show’s normal number,down from 36 last year—several stand in a personal niche. Early favourites include two women,Haeley Vaughn,a teenage,black pop-country singer,and Crystal Bowersox,a husky-voiced folkie in the Indigo Girls vein. Lilly Scott is an eccentric jazzbo and John Park a clean-cut standards crooner. Even Tim Urban,the last-minute replacement for the disqualified semifinalist Chris Golightly (reportedly for having a recording contract),seems to have been moulded by listening to latter-day pop emo bands.

Any of these paths can end in pop success,but the most plainly relevant contestant this season is Andrew Garcia,a YouTube-era star in the making,one of thousands of people who for the last few years have been posting clips of their cover-song performances to the Internet in hopes they’d get noticed. In those clips,which still pepper YouTube,he’s a clear adept,able to breezily disassemble and reformat popular songs for his limited vocal range—a recipe for modern Idol success. His version of Paula Abdul’s hit Straight Up during Hollywood week has been this season’s most memorable and thoughtful performance by far.

Last season,the songwriter Kara DioGuardi was brought on as a fourth judge,joining what had seemed like an impregnable trio: Cowell,Abdul and Randy Jackson. Abdul departed after last season,and her chair on the judging panel has been filled by the talk show host,actress and comedian Ellen DeGeneres,who signed a five-year contract to appear on Idol.

It must have been maddening for DeGeneres to have suffered the media swell that represented and assessed her as the new Abdul,when all along she probably understood that she was in fact the new Cowell.

“My role on the show is somebody who’s run a successful record label,” Cowell said during the recent conference call. But he’s also the reliable centre of sanity—before DioGuardi was added to the panel,often he was the only person tethering the show’s judging to logic. With Cowell moving out of the picture,DeGeneres is free to pick up his mantle. DeGeneres,heir apparent to Oprah Winfrey,has more clout than most record executives,or for that matter most record labels.

In the Hollywood round,DeGeneres was articulate and humorous,withering when she needed to be and completely polished in her casualness,the product of more than two decades of television experience. Made most vulnerable by DeGeneres’ arrival is DioGuardi,who when she joined the show immediately became the second most sensible member of the judging panel,and sometimes the first.