The issue of poverty estimation seems to be getting more complicated as a government-sponsored panel has now said that about 38 per cent Indians are poor — 10 percentage points higher than a previous estimate.

The states are already opposed to the Centre’s calculations on poverty estimation. In an interim finding, former chief of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council Suresh Tendulkar has estimated that 38 per cent of India’s population (comprising 8.32 crore families) is poor.

The Planning Commission in 2004-05 had said that 28.5 per cent of the country’s population was poor. The estimate was based on a National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) survey’s finding which said an income of Rs 560 per month for urban families was enough to purchase 2,100 calories of nutrition and an income of Rs 368 per month was enough to purchase 2,400 calories of nutrition in rural areas. However, different government bodies disputed the plan panel’s estimate. In 2007, the Arjun Sengupta committee had said that 77 per cent of India’s population was living below the poverty line, earning less than Rs 20 per day.

In June 2009, a rural development ministry-sponsored committee headed by N C Saxena to fix criteria for the Below Poverty Line survey in India had estimated that 50 per cent of Indians were poor. The Saxena Committee’s estimate matched the number of BPL ration cards issued so far — 10.86 crore households. As per the estimate, 10.87 crore households will have to be issued cards as per the new estimation, starting January 2010.

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