Record wheat, rice reports hint agriculture may buck economic trend

According to the latest data available with the Agriculture Ministry, the Rabi area sown till the middle of November was over 12 per cent more than the acreage last year. The area under wheat has increased by 5 per cent, from 21.92 lakh hectares to 26.90 lakh hectares, while the rise in case of coarse cereals (jawar, maize, barley) this Rabi is about 8 per cent.

Another positive indicator is the estimated rice production, likely to be 83.25 million tonnes against the targeted 83 million tonnes for the Kharif season and topping last year’s record output. “The reports on Rabi crop sowing indicate that we will be able to maintain the agriculture growth rate at 4.5 per cent this year despite the delay in monsoon in some of the states,” Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar told reporters on the sidelines of a function in Mumbai a few days back.

“In fact, Rabi is expected to make up any loss, especially for pulses and oilseeds, during the Kharif season. The area under acreage so far provides a clear evidence of that,” S M Jharwal, Principal Advisor in the Ministry of Agriculture, said.

The Rabi crop acreage figures also indicate early sowing, which is expected to boost productivity. “Early sowing is good as it makes crops less prone to temperature variations later and adds to productivity,” explained Jharwal.

Policy makers are also taking heart from the fact that there has been a rise in wheat sowing despite there being no announcement of a hike in the minimum support price this year. While the Government is reportedly contemplating raising the MSP for wheat by Rs 80 per quintal — to Rs 1,080 — the election code in place because of polls in six states has stalled any announcement.

In fact, India can take a lesson from China, which recently announced a $586-billion economic stimulus package, including provisions for increasing procurement prices of foodgrains, to provide stimulus to the economy.