Warm up to the future

It is overlooked in India that a large-scale revival of civil nuclear energy is unfolding in US, Russia, China, Europe and elsewhere. Those who talk of civil nuclear energy as a sun-set industry are not in touch with the latest developments in the industrial world. Even the environmentalists who opposed nuclear energy in the ’70s and ’80s have come round to the view that nuclear energy is today the cleanest form of energy, that the problem of nuclear waste is solvable and that it is possible to produce proliferation-proof reactors to help burn up plutonium and reduce nuclear waste. Already seats in US educational institutions dealing with nuclear engineering have been overbooked. It is quite likely that many of our trainees at BARC may end up in the US to catch the new nuclear boom.

Some people in this country think Bush is keen to clinch the “India success” as he has failed in every other area. In fact, he aims to go down in history as the chief executive who solved the energy problem of the US and helped in solving it for the rest of the world. His energy strategy has three prongs: to spread proliferation-proof nuclear energy, to promote clean coal power production, and to change automobile technology to eliminate the use of hydro-carbons. There are sceptics who argue that he may not succeed in his strategy and that he is not prepared to raise the price of gasoline to discourage its consumption. He has, however, stepped up research funding for hybrid automobile engines and for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles.

The US recognises that China, India and US are likely to be the largest energy consumers this century. Provision of clean energy to these countries is not only in their interest but also in the interest of the world as a whole to ensure the adverse impact of climate change does not worsen. Hurricanes like Katrina and Rita were wake-up calls to the US.

In these new technologies the US will be the pre-eminent leader. It has already promoted projects like the International Thermo-nuclear Experimental Reactor, Global Nuclear Energy Partnership and Generation IV International Forum, all of which relate to nuclear energy. It is also embarking on a zero-emission, coal-fired thermal power plant project. This project may include China and other nations. In addition, the US has promoted a clean energy initiative with Japan, Australia, China, India and South Korea. If and when the US develops these technologies it will be the chief beneficiary, as happened when it made the internet available to the entire world and in turn benefited enormously from information technology. American energy initiatives are meant to sustain the economic and technological pre-eminence of the US. As happened with IT, India can benefit from its cooperation with the US. China has decided to go along with the US.

Given this background — in global energy development and the web of ties being constructed among US, Russia and China — the idea of China and Russia developing an adversarial relationship with the US does not make any sense. The very fact that this year’s G-8 summit is presided over by Russia and that China and India are special invitees would highlight how antediluvian are concepts of adversarial power blocs. Competition and rivalry among powers will be there but not arms race, adversarial confrontation and containment.

The US certainly hopes to sustain its hegemony by leading the new energy revolution. The rest of the world has a lot to benefit by cooperating. Most new technologies of the 20th century came from the US and no country, no matter its ideology, thought in terms of rejecting them. While the US administration and industry are going ahead with their R&D initiatives, many US legislators are still living in the Cold War era as their counterparts here also do. But one has to make a distinction between the initiatives of the administration and industry and views of Ayatollahs in seminary-like think tanks and legislators with staff derived from such orthodox places.

Clean energy is the crucial global issue. The fact that in India adequate thought has not been devoted to this core issue is evident from 10-12 hour loadshedding in our major cities. Those who brought us to this situation and now preach autonomy in energy generation don’t deserve much attention. Global powers like US, Russia and China are getting together to solve the energy problem. India will be hurting itself if it does not take advantage of the invitation from the international community to address the energy problem.