With its first nuclear test on Monday, North Korea has dealt a double blow to China. For years, it had been widely assumed that if any one had leverage with “dear leader” Kim Jong-il, it was Beijing. That China could not stop Pyongyang from going ahead with its plans to become the eighth declared nuclear weapon state in the world is a huge setback to Beijing’s political credibility.

China often used to say that its relations with North Korea are as close as “lips and teeth”. It was on this basis that the US and the international community deferred to Chinese diplomatic leadership on the nuclear question in North Korea. In a departure from its diplomatic practice of not criticising North Korea, Beijing in recent days had used sharp words against North Korea’s nuclear intentions; but with no effect. China went to the extent of issuing a joint statement on Sunday with Japan, against which Chinese and Korean nationalisms have often made common cause, warning against the impending nuclear test.

Some have argued that a North Korean nuclear test might offer Beijing some leverage against Washington. This is far-fetched. China is likely to be worse off as Japan reacts to the North Korean nuclear test.

While it is unlikely to go nuclear, Tokyo is bound to discard all remaining post-war restrictions on its military. Shinzo Abe, who recently became prime minister of Japan, has plans to modify Japan’s ‘peace constitution’ and make the Japanese defence posture more robust. North Korea has now offered Abe the biggest justification for a historic change in Japan’s defence policy. Beijing will be the loser.

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