A double whammy

China often used to say that its relations with North Korea are as close as “lips and teeth”. It was on this basis that the US and the international community deferred to Chinese diplomatic leadership on the nuclear question in North Korea. In a departure from its diplomatic practice of not criticising North Korea, Beijing in recent days had used sharp words against North Korea’s nuclear intentions; but with no effect. China went to the extent of issuing a joint statement on Sunday with Japan, against which Chinese and Korean nationalisms have often made common cause, warning against the impending nuclear test.

Some have argued that a North Korean nuclear test might offer Beijing some leverage against Washington. This is far-fetched. China is likely to be worse off as Japan reacts to the North Korean nuclear test.

As China ponders its options, it surely will be reminded of the saying, what goes round always comes back. Beijing’s past benign attitudes to nuclear proliferation in Pakistan and North Korea have ended up making India nuclear and Japan more assertive.

Hu, the Strong

While China’s headaches in East Asia mount, its president, Hu Jintao, is rapidly consolidating his grip on the Chinese Communist Party. Although he took charge of China in 2002, Hu had to cope with the refusal of his powerful predecessor, Jiang Zemin, to fade away.

But this week’s plenum of the Central Committee of the CCP is expected to underline Hu’s emergence as the unquestioned leader of China. Over the last few weeks, Hu has confronted the so-called “Shanghai clique” of Jiang’s proteges and allies in the party. Of special importance was Hu’s decision to sack Shanghai party boss and CPC Politburo member, Chen Liangyu, on charges of corruption. Chen was a close associate of Jiang.

The plenum is expected to strip Chen of his party membership and order prosecution against him for misusing citizens’ pension funds for illegal investments.

India’s opportunity

As it prepares to lay out the red carpet for Hu next month, India should recognise that strong interlocutors make for productive negotiations.

Hu’s visit provides India a rare opportunity to make some big moves, especially on the long-standing boundary dispute. The Janata Dal Government led by H.D. Deve Gowda, that received President Jiang at the pinnacle of his power during 1996, did not have the political will to lift Sino-Indian ties above the ordinary. The NDA government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was certainly bolder. But by the time it was poised for a breakthrough, its time had run out.

The UPA government built upon the advances made by the NDA and completed the negotiations on the guiding principles for resolving the boundary dispute during Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in April 2005.

Since then, however, the momentum of the boundary talks has slipped. If China is prepared to respond, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh should now focus on finding a mutually acceptable territorial compromise during Hu’s visit.

For years, Chinese analysts have argued that ever since Rajiv Gandhi, India has not had governments with the strength to negotiate seriously on the boundary. Yet for the first time in decades, there appears to be a strong domestic political consensus in India for a pragmatic settlement of the boundary dispute with China.

With the inevitable support from the Communist parties, and the blessings of Vajpayee who led creative Indian thinking on China for nearly three decades, Singh has the opportunity to pull off India’s biggest foreign policy coup in six decades. Singh has one of India’s most experienced China hands, Shiv Shankar Menon, at the helm of the foreign office. As the Americans might say, let the real bargaining begin.