Kenya and Ethiopia are loth to step in. Neither can afford a big military offensive. Both have large Somali minorities. The Shabab says it downed a Kenyan military helicopter flying along the border last month, though Kenya denies it. In any event, the Shabab says it "will destroy the tall glass buildings in Nairobi" unless Kenya pulls its troops back from the border. Any terrorist attack would badly hurt Kenya's already shaky tourist industry and may well deter foreign investors. In any case, Kenya is unlikely to send its forces into Somalia unless it is attacked first.

Ethiopia withdrew most of its troops from Somalia earlier this year, after losing perhaps 800 of its men. A few Ethiopian soldiers are thought to remain discreetly inside Somalia, rallying armed opposition to the Shabab. But Ethiopia's government has no appetite for sending in troops all over again. Ethiopian officials dislike being portrayed as stooges for the previous American administration's war on terror and say their troops would return only under an international mandate and in smaller numbers. "We don't want to be the horse taking the chestnut out of the fire and then being whipped by everyone and his grandmother," says Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's prime minister. Yet he cannot stomach a jihadist state across his border, backed by his enemy, Eritrea.

The last hope for Somalia's wobbly government may be the United States, which has once again secretly begun to supply it with arms. But that may be too late to save the day.

... contd.