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A great game without end

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  • The invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001was aimed at over- throwing the regime of the Taliban. It concurrently aimed to set up the mechanisms which would facilitate the transition from authoritarian rule to democracy. Suffice to say, the situation in Afghanistan is getting worse — increased number of civilian casualties, attacks on international aid workers and insurgencies from all four directions of the country are at an all time high and the reconstruction efforts are failing. The country lies bereft of a centralised leadership; the Northern Alliance egged on by the efforts of the Taliban and warlord commanders is ravaging the already fragile system. The international community has failed to deliver on its promises, and it continues to be ill-equipped to tackle the internal politicisation of the country. The message from the Taliban — the international community must leave, the Afghans will handle matters pertaining to Afghanistan by themselves.

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    The international community organised under the US-led coalition initiated the war to eliminate the perpetrators behind the 9/11 attacks. The campaign was executed within a month. It appeared that this large-scale air bombing had rid Afghanistan of militant and terrorist factions. However, these factions were not eradicated, they had merely moved location — either to Pakistan, Iran or Uzbekistan. Leaving their central base of Kabul and Kandahar, they made way for international forces. Terms and agreements on the make-up of the post-Taliban government were laid out in Bonn and a transitional outline for the Afghan government was mandated in the Bonn Agreement.

    The construction of an interim government attempted to ensure “broad representation of all segments of the Afghan population” which included the mujahideen. Exiled Afghans convening at Bonn agreed upon Hamid Karzai’s appointment as president. The Loya Jirga would within six months decide upon the make-up of the transitional government and free and fair elections would be held no later two years after the Bonn Agreement. In spirit the agreement attempted to unite the country; in reality it re-instated those who were responsible for the Afghan civil war. Key ministerial posts were given to warlords. For instance, Abdul Rashid Dostum, who runs one of the most powerful private militaries in the world, was appointed special adviser on security and military affairs. So, it appeared that the new democratic administration supervised by international authorities consisted of thugs who had legitimised their authority. This organisation superficially represented the different ethnic communities within Afghanistan, but what it failed to take into account was that the warlords could in turn run provinces as their own fiefdoms. However, there was no alternative to the Bonn Agreement — until much later.

    This form of government encouraged corruption but most of all it undermined the authority of Karzai. Karzai had been promised aid and assistance in developing Afghanistan, and on several accounts both prior to the deterioration of the situation and post he mentioned the need for international assistance. The US had pledged support however, as the re-building of Afghanistan was taking place, the US engaged itself in Iraq — committing money and resources — $300 billion of its finances to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein and liberate the Iraqis. The UN too had pledged financial assistance and ground assistance, which materialised in the NATO force, ISAF. ISAF was given the responsibility of securing Kabul and the immediate surrounding areas, but the enemy lay outside Kabul, towards the Afghan-Pakistan border with FATA. The US, it appeared, had banked on European and Pakistani support to partially cover the costs of the Afghan problem — the EU under-contributed and the Pakistani’s under the leadership of Musharraf abused finances and authority.

    In the meanwhile ministers engaged to raise finances on their own. This resulted in the growth of opium cultivation, which now accounts for 72 per cent of world opium supply. Corruption led to the expansion of commanders pockets at the cost of a failing civil society.

    The elections which were held in 2004 serves only to indicate that the power of the warlords was not something the Afghan infant state could take on. Karzai appointed chief warlords to prominent positions prior to the elections in order to ensure free and democratic elections — in which he was once again named president.

    Worsening conditions paved the way for the re-emergence of the Taliban. Elections are to be held in the coming year. Karzai’s position is in jeopardy; further, the electoral process itself is in jeopardy. The Taliban are once again threatening the security of the system, and international players have realised the changing realities. The Afghanistan Compact, which succeeds the Bonn Agreement, acknowledges this. The emphasis of the Afghan Compact is on reconstruction. More aid has been pledged — $10.5 billion. But the situation is now no longer as finite as a monetary donation.

    alia.allana@expressindia.com

    commentBy: Ashraf Sadat | 19-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward Dear writer, you have only one resean of resurgence of Taliban, which was overturn of US attention from Afghanistan to Iraq. but what i believe is that the main problems was and remains Pakistan. Pakistan was and is playing a double policy. and one thing that should have been clear is that the real terrorism is not it in Afghanistan, it is not in villages distrects of Afghanistan, the real terrorism is in Pakistan. if it is dealt properly in Pakistan, meaning if a combined forces consisted of Pakistan, Afghanistan and International community targets militannts in Tribal areas of Pakistan, then problem in Afghanistan will solved itself. but the article was nice. i personaly liked it.
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