Opinion A guide on probable,possible,and not impossible Prime Ministerial candidates

As I see it,the two most probable candidates for Prime Minister are Mayawati and Rahul Gandhi. If Mayawati manages to win over 50 Lok Sabha seats she could be unstoppable. Fifty is not too difficult a target when one considers that Mayawati’s home state of Uttar Pradesh has 80 parliamentary seats and all other parties and alliances in UP,even the uneasy SP- Congress coalition,seem to be on a much weaker wicket. If she reaches the magic figure,Mayawati is certainly not going to support anyone else for PM. With a stalemate in the offing,either NDA or UPA may per force have to back her to remain in the power equation. Besides,most political parties do not want to carry the stigma of denying a Dalit woman her place in the sun. How long the autocratic and mercurial Mayawati lasts as PM is another matter.

Rahul Gandhi has his eye not on 2009,when the verdict is likely to be unclear,but on the subsequent election. But the man the Congress is already projecting as the next generation leader may not have the luxury of choosing the time when he takes the plunge.

If the UPA is within striking distance of the halfway mark,the Third Front led by the Left might just be persuaded to support the Congress. The Left support would certainly be with the pre-condition that Manmohan Singh,the architect of the Indo-US nuclear deal,not be given a second term. The Congress could save face by claiming Manmohan Singh decided to bow out for health reasons.

The list of possible candidates is more extensive.

Manmohan Singh is the Congress’s official candidate. If the UPA was to perform so well that it requires minimum outside support,he would be the obvious choice for PM. But it is unlikely that the UPA can come to power without the backing of a sizable chunk of the Third Front. The Left is bound to nix Singh’s name. Of course with the Mamata Congress tie-up in Bengal materialising,the question is whether the Communists will have the numbers to call the shots.

Pranab Mukherjee with his administrative talents,wide range of experience and excellent rapport with the Communists and most political parties should be the obvious choice,if Singh is out of the picture. But it is for the very same reasons,he is unacceptable to Sonia Gandhi,who sees him as a threat to the future of the dynasty.

The squeaky clean,loyal and less ambitious A K Antony fits more into the Gandhi’s preferred mould of a vizier who looks after the kingdom while waiting for the heir to eventually take charge. Antony,being a bit of a ditherer has not excelled as an administrator.

Throughout his career L K Advani has played second fiddle to Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Can Advani at the age of 81 finally hope to play the lead role? The problem is that the BJP has lost some key allies in its years out of power. Thanks to its Hindutva line,parties like the TDP and Trinamool Congress,who do not want to lose Muslim votes,have deserted it.

At this stage it seems that the BJP has allowed the Congress to steal a march over it. Most see the UPA ahead of the NDA in the electoral race of 2009. But,this could work to the BJP’s advantage. The 2004 campaign showed us that it does not pay to be smug and over confident. The armchair pundits sitting in Delhi may have misread the country’s mood. The Congress could in fact be more affected by the economic meltdown and its failure to achieve a major breakthrough in the war against terrorism than is generally assumed.

Mayawati may be the front-runner,but she is not the only leader from a smaller party who could be a prime ministerial candidate. Bihar Chief Minister,Nitish Kumar may well emerge as the dark horse. Nitish,unlike Mayawati,is pragmatic and a sound administrator,who has a good equation with not just the NDA but also with many in the UPA and Third Front. Nitish,provided his party performs well in Bihar,is an ideal consensus choice.

The not impossible category includes several who have already made known their ambition to be PM. Sharad Pawar,has thrown his hat into the ring early. Whether the NCP will actually win enough parliamentary seats to give him the clout to live out his fantasies is another matter.

Laloo Prasad Yadav is a popular face among the OBCs and downtrodden. But Laloo’s record as chief minister of Bihar left much to be desired,though he can now boast of turning around the Indian Railways. His rival Yadav leader in UP Mulayam Singh Yadav has the advantage of the services of the remarkable Amar Singh to brazenly push his case in the post election scenario. But first Mulayam must reclaim lost ground in Uttar Pradesh.

Ram Vilas Paswan is unlikely to muster enough MPs to make a difference,but being a Dalit may work in his favour as he can be projected as a counter to Mayawati. Jayalalithaa,is expected to do well in Tamil Nadu and post election the mercurial Jayalalithaa could go with either side. In fact,if given the right opportunity,she would like to be Prime Minister herself. Chandrababu Naidu,who once turned down the Prime Ministership,may be hoping for a second chance. He has a tough electoral battle ahead of him in Andhra Pradesh.

Finally,there is always the remote possibility that in a tight spot Sonia Gandhi just might be persuaded to take up the reins of government temporarily,although she has made it clear she would prefer to see her son take charge.