A helping hand

While the immediate impact of the Bishnupur (West) Assembly bypoll,which the Trinamool won with a handsome margin of 30,000 votes,may not bother the CPI(M),its long-term import does not paint a rosy picture for the party. It was not a mere coincidence that within six hours of the result being declared,the Congress and Trinamool finally stitched an alliance in Bengal. They were quick to realise that not only were the Opposition votes united,but there was also a clear swing (at least 5 per cent) away from the CPI(M). So what are the political compulsions which precipitated the alliance?

Why Mamata wants the alliance

This time,Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee was particularly keen on an alliance with the Congress,despite her bitter experiences earlier. This is primarily to stop a division of anti-CPI(M) votes,and,by doing so,initiate a trend that might continue till the next Assembly elections in 2011. Poll analysts point out that since 1987,one of the major factors behind the CPI(M)s victory in the state has been factionalism within the Congress and a division of Opposition votes. This led to Mamata and others breaking away from the party in 1998.

Even in the 2001 Assembly polls,when the Trinamool tied up with the Congress,it did not work at the grassroots level,as supporters of both the parties put up dummy candidates against each other. The result was significant. The Congress and Trinamool could notch up only 92 seats despite getting 49 per cent of the total votes,whereas the Left Front won 202 seats with a vote share of 50 per cent.

This time,Mamata feels that the situation will not recur,as the Congress will not be able to ignore the strong pro- Trinamool wave after the 2008 panchayat vote. For the first time in the last three decades,there was a swing away from the CPI(M) in the May 2008 panchayat elections. For the Trinamool chief,the Lok Sabha polls are a dress rehearsal for the 2011 exercise.

Why Cong wants the alliance

The Congress,like the Trinamool,has proclaimed that it does not want the anti-Left vote in the state to get divided. However,there are far more critical reasons behind the partys rationale for the alliance. Firstly,the Congress has seen an erosion in its support base like never before. Party stalwarts like Somen Mitra and Sudip Bandopadhyay have left the party to join hands with Mamata. Senior leader Subrata Mukherjee has been one of the most vocal advocates of an alliance with her. More leaders in the Congress are said to be waiting in the wings to change sides. And with Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi indisposed,the Congress has become a weak force.

Besides,the support base of the Congress,at present,is confined to some pockets of North Bengal. The Trinamool has overshadowed the Congress in large tracts of South Bengal.

The Congress would also like to see a weaker CPI(M) in Bengal,so that it does not have to depend on the Lefts backing at the national level. So,as soon as Nandigram and Bishnupur bypolls indicated a definite swing in favour of Mamata,the Congress was only too willing to go for the experiment.

Why the CPI(M) is worried

The CPI(M)s prime poll strategist for decades veteran leader Jyoti Basu has already sounded the alarm bell,stating that an alliance between the Congress and Trinamool will be dangerous for the party and the Left Front.

Party insiders say the last panchayat election results showed that a sizeable section of the floating vote,which the CPI(M) used to garner during the last decade due to Opposition disunity,is going Mamatas way. At least in six districts,the Trinamool made a dent in even the loyal Left vote-bank.

THE BENGAL EQUATION

42 Total number of LS seats in West Bengal

• Present status: Left Front 35,Congress 6 and Trinamool 1

• Advantage Congress: Raigunj,Maldah (North),Maldah (South),Murshidabad,Jangipur,Baharampur

• Advantage Mamata: Ranaghat,Barasat,Bongaon,Kolkata (South),Mathurapur,Diamond Harbour,Hooghly,Tamluk,Uluberia

• Added advantage for Cong-Trinamool alliance: Alipurduar,Krishnanagar,Basirhat,Sreerampore,Contai,Kolkata (North)