In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections the Congress won 12 out of 26 seats and 44 per cent of the popular vote in Gujarat. The BJP won 14 seats and 47 per cent of the vote. The Lok Sabha results analysed in terms of the 182 assembly constituencies in the state reveal that both the Congress and the BJP won 90 assembly segments each with one going to the NCP and the JD(U) respectively. Ostensibly, the ensuing battle for forming the new government in Gandhinagar is evenly poised.

The BJP came to power in Gujarat in 1995. Except for a brief period when Shanker Sinh Vaghela gave it a short shrift, it has been ruling for close to a decade now. There is a two-party system with no third force in the state. The BJP’s sand castle in Gujarat rests on the twin constructs of minority-bashing and a myth called Vibrant Gujarat.

Let’s examine the latter first. How vibrant is Gujarat, really? From January 1997 to September 2005 Gujarat has consistently ranked fifth in terms of approved FDI projects behind Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. While Maharashtra attracted investment worth Rs 35,757 crore, Gujarat could only mobilise Rs 13,289 crore during this eight year period. Between January-May 2007 Gujarat was not even among the first five states in terms of investment proposals. It managed to retain its position in the first ten only due to the expansion plans of Reliance and Essar refineries.

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