The intrigue and uncertainty that Karnataka politics has been witness to in recent months will reach a climax in the first week of October when the transfer of chief ministership is scheduled to take place. The Indian Express-CNN-IBN all-India opinion poll conducted in the first week of September tapped the popular mood in Karnataka on the power transfer. The Karnataka survey was conducted across the state and the sample mirrored the population of the state.

The question is: will the BJP assume leadership of the state government in October? Most of those interviewed in the state (more than 60 per cent, in fact) were convinced that the transfer of power would actually happen. The more educated the respondent, the less convinced they were about the likelihood of the agreement between the JD(S) and BJP being honoured in the coming weeks. There was greater cynicism among those living in urban areas about the transfer of power as compared to those residing in rural areas.

Do voters in Karnataka prefer a mid-term poll for the state assembly? The option found very few supporters, with just over 15 per cent of the respondents endorsing the mid-term poll option. There was a little more support for a mid-term poll in towns and cities as compared to the villages. More than 70 per cent of the respondents felt that the assembly should complete its term and the elections should be held only in 2009 as per schedule. Voters do not favour recourse to frequent elections to resolve political logjams.

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