The victory of the People’s Power Party (PPP) in the recently concluded national elections has not brought an end to the uncertainty in Thailand. Even after elections are over, the big political questions remain unanswered: Who is likely to form the next government? Can a coalition government survive for long?

The reason for this uncertainty is that, like the national elections in India in the recent past, the Thai elections have also failed to bring out a clear winner. No political party managed to win the majority of seats required for forming the government. In a House of 480 members, with 400 elected directly from the constituencies and 80 elected on the party list, a party needs a minimum of 241 seats to form the government.

Though the PPP emerged as the single largest party in the House with 233 seats, it still fell 8 seats short of the magic figure. The Democrat Party ended up with 165 seats. The remaining seats were won by smaller political parties like the Chart Thai (37 seats), Puea Pandin (25 seats), the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana (9 seats), Matchima Thipataya (7 seats) and Pracharaj (4 seats).

In a hung parliament, the smaller parties are likely to play a crucial role in forming the government. While both the PPP and the Democrats are trying to woo the smaller parties, doing so may be tougher for the Democrats. The PPP may find it easy to get the support of at least the 8 more members required to cross the figure of 241. In all likelihood, the PPP will get the support of the Chart Thai party with 37 seats in the house, because most of the members of the Chart Thai party are those who had been together in the now banned Thaksin’s Thai Rat Thai (TRT) party. Since many of them have worked together in the TRT during the Thaksin era, it may not be difficult for leaders of these two parties to share power in the next government.

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