Opinion A political match that looks fixed

The Indian voter is not confused. He does not like the Congress,and she does not like the BJP. Nitish Kumar in 2014?

July 2, 2011 12:41 AM IST First published on: Jul 2, 2011 at 12:41 AM IST

There is a pattern,and one stronger than that in the Sensex. Ever since its birth in May 2004,the Congress-led UPA government has been buffeted by one scandal after another. In its much vaunted second term,after its self-heralded victory in May 2009 (which the Sensex joined in with a 17 per cent gain on victory day itself),the performance of the UPA has been nothing short of disastrous perhaps the worst of any government in Indias short 64-year history. If this description is broadly accurate,and it is,one would think that the Congress party would be in deep trouble. Think again.

On every single occasion that the Congress has been in major trouble,it has been bailed out by its major opposition,the BJP. The Congress has had a charmed life and any forecast of it being in danger has to consider the distinct possibility of it being the only cat in town. Consider first,the politics of the nuclear deal in 2007-08. The BJP,under Vajpayees leadership,had changed the course of Indias foreign policy from the genuflecting,anti-America and pro-Soviet Union ways of the Congress. It had won the support of most non-Left parties except the Congress. There was much talk of a new relationship with the US,and a nuclear partnership to cement the future.

The May 2004 election saw the BJP lose,and the Congress changed course and became an ardent supporter of Indo-US cooperation. So what did the BJP do? It became,inexplicably,an ardent opponent. This was so transparently opportunistic and nonsensical that the BJP lost considerable credibility and handily lost the May 2009 election.

But something else happened. The BJPs opposition to the deal was so boundless,and desperate,that it indulged itself in the cash for votes scam,the truth about which was to come out at precisely the time when the Congress would be the most vulnerable.

The Congress party started its steep decline in popularity in 2010. Over the last eight months,not one single word has been uttered by anyone,not even its supporters,in favour of the party. Yet,at every twisted turn,the Congress comes out looking no worse than the BJP. How come? Consider the following.

The country is abuzz with corruption scams galore the Commonwealth Games,the 2G scam,and much more. So what does the BJP do? It rants and raves,but fails to clean its own frontyard. Its own chief minister in Karnataka,B.S. Yeddyurappa,is alleged to have been involved in several scams,but is kept going strong. Meanwhile,the Congress-led Central government brings corruption charges against its allies and individuals in charge of the Commonwealth Games and telecommunications. Why couldnt the BJP make similar face-saving arrangements?

The gang that cannot shoot,let alone shoot straight,starts to walk in January 2011. The crescendo against corruption is in full swing,but perhaps because of Yeddyurappa,the BJP decides you are going to love this to march to Kashmir to hoist the national flag on Republic Day,January 26. Thats it we love our country,etc. Except a terrorist few,most love their country anyway,so whats the big deal with the march?

Then came WikiLeaks. All governments are shown in a bad light. In a full-throated delivery,Sushma Swaraj claims that the Indian government has lost all moral responsibility to govern. And then came more WikiLeaks. It turns out that the BJP had got its own politicians,and willing TV channels,to film a supposed bribe to other politicians who would cross over and support the Congress in a trust vote in Parliament. This in 2008,in the age of the Internet,a hundred 24/7 news channels and smartphones. It takes a lot of talent,and old-age stupidity,to think that one can keep such hot secrets for long.

And then came civil society,Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev,to fill the Congress-BJP vacuum. The BJP wholeheartedly supported these efforts but those being supported have been found to be less than appealing. Civil society has displayed the same hubris,and contemptuous arrogance,as the pre-scam Congress. So when evidence is uncovered about the not-so-clean nature of civil society,tongues go wagging. Considerable wrongdoing is uncovered in the spiritual yoga camp (since when are these gurus experts on anything besides religious prayers and yoga?). Not to be deterred by rapidly declining support for the good causes like the much flawed Lokpal bill,the BJP celebrates not by dancing in the streets,but dancing at Rajghat,the samadhi for Mahatma Gandhi.

Note that at each step,the BJP falters,and does so in an inexplicable fashion. It is as if there was match-fixing going on. There have been so many opportunities for the BJP to show leadership,to show vision. Both are lacking within the Congress. But no,the BJP has to oppose whatever the Congress proposes,even if the proposal is to support motherhood. Some mothers are corrupt,the BJP says hence our principled stand is not to support motherhood. Mothers milk some of it can be contaminated,so we cannot comment on it at present. Support against terrorists yes,but only if we march to Kashmir. The poor Indian voter is not confused. He does not like the Congress,and she does not like the BJP. Nitish Kumar in 2014?

The writer is chairman of Oxus Investments,an emerging market advisory and fund management firm