People living below the poverty line (BPL) constitute 14 per cent of Gujarat’s population. Among the BPL families living in Gujarat, 13 per cent live in rural areas and 16 per cent in urban pockets. So, how have the poor fared in the last five years of BJP rule in the state? Has their economic condition improved or has it worsened? Will those among the poor who feel their economic condition has deteriorated vote for Narendra Modi or vote against him? The findings of the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS survey indicate that around 24 per cent of the voters in Gujarat said their economic condition has improved during the last five years of BJP rule in the state. But 36 per cent think theirs has only worsened under the Modi regime.

What people think about their economic condition could influence the way they vote. About 37 per cent of the poor felt their economic condition has worsened during BJP rule as compared with only 19 per cent who said theirs has improved. Among the poor, 39 per cent in urban areas reported a decline in their economic situation as compared with 32 per cent living in villages. Similarly more women (36 per cent) from the poorer section said their economic condition has declined during Modi’s rule than men (32 per cent).

All this goes to show that perhaps Modi’s development model didn’t really succeed in being an inclusive one. However the crucial question in the run up to the Assembly elections is whether there is a correlation between the deteriorating economic condition of poor and their political choice? Are the poor going to vote en-bloc, or are their votes divided on their economic experience of the last five years? The survey reveals that the poor are divided, and 72 per cent of those whose economic condition improved in the last five years are likely to vote for the BJP.