The first is the BSP’s consolidation. In 2007, it became the single-largest party to rule UP after a decade and a half of fractured mandates. As Mayawati’s mentor, Kanshi Ram, said years ago, “Vote se lenge CM/PM, aarakshan se SP/DM (We will get the CM/PM through votes, and occupy the DM and SP’s posts through reservation).” The BSP has skilfully shown it can consolidate a loyal Dalit core and attach several layers of votes to be a viable alternative. In a caste-ridden state, the flexibility that this transferable and loyal voter core has given Mayawati is what makes her appear so formidable. But Mayawati’s growing ambitions need her to get voters beyond her traditional and comfort zone. Will she?

The other change in UP is how the BJP is placed today. With having scored a duck in 1984, it rose sharply to 51 seats in 1991 with nearly 33 per cent of the vote. In 1998, when the BJP-led NDA captured power at the Centre, UP accounted for almost a third of BJP’s seats in the Lok Sabha. However, since the 2004 general elections and through the 2007 state elections, the BJP has been morphing into a collapsed Congress. So you again have a situation where the BJP president (like his Congress counterpart) is an MP from UP, but after having also presided over a steady slide in numbers and organisational strength at the lower levels in the state.

The fact of the BJP being seen to be weak in UP does not only mean something for its own fortunes, and the NDA’s. A weak BJP in a state where the Muslim vote counts (in at least 25 per cent of the seats it is considerable) could change things. The Muslim vote having previously consolidated to defeat the BJP, with the party’s decline now, these electors can explore new possibilities.

... contd.