While Mayawati has crafted her politics and alliances around a solid, loyal core, which is unlikely to waver for the next few years, Mulayam’s non-Yadav support base has been a loyal Muslim base, but loyal not because they got “power” (in fact, Mayawati has often been at pains to emphasise that she gives more tickets to Muslims than the SP, and offers a certain vote share for them to win by). But it was Mulayam’s tough stand and statement in 1990 (“Even a bird won’t dare flap its wings at Babri Masjid.”) that got him the Muslim vote for strong emotional reasons. But emotional votes can also disappear as quickly as they come, and Mayawati’s recent silence on both Kalyan Singh and the recent souring of terms between the SP and the Congress could be explained as glee or anticipation of voters swaying her way, or both.

Twenty years ago, Lalu Prasad and Mulayam were reportedly competing on who’d arrest L.K. Advani on his Rath Yatra. Mulayam was said to have been all set to do so, at Deoria, a border town in UP, close to where the Buddha spent his last days. Lalu pipped him, at Samastipur, in Bihar. That incident, and the fact how the arrest then launched Lalu as a “messiah” may help the SP understand better the reasons why partnering Kalyan could be such a gamble.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com