The northern region of India falls in Category 4 and 5 of seismic probability. The figure is an indicator of the strength of the quake anticipated, and consequently its need to be sufficiently countered by the structural strength of buildings in the region. It is a well-known fact that only 12 per cent of the approved structures conform to the seismic code, many only on paper. That doesn’t include the almost 60 per cent of illegal homemade constructions in towns throughout north India that are precariously balanced on three and four stories, waiting merely for a mild shake of the earth. It also doesn’t include thousands of others built before the seismic code came into existence. In lieu of new construction materials and practices, a serious seismic assessment of Indian buildings — existing and proposed — needs to be made. Rigorous strengthening of the old and a policing of the new could reduce the impact and allow people enough time to escape a high Richter quake.

The possibility of fatalities and the sheer scale of numbers, if a Sichuan type earthquake were to strike the region, are too numbing to contemplate. But if the bleak scenario has any silver lining, it is that the builder nexus may also be buried under the rubble.

The writer, a Delhi-based architect, is author of ‘Punjabi Baroque and Other Memories of Architecture’