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A squeaker, with more to come

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  • It gets worse. A new provision, added just before the vote, would oblige the president to impose tariffs on goods from countries that do not limit greenhouse-gas emissions. This is probably illegal under WTO rules and could start a trade war with China and India. Even Mr Obama choked on it. “I think we have to be very careful about sending any protectionist signals out there,” he said. But would he veto?

    Another new provision greatly increases opportunities for farmers to make money by selling “offsets” — that is, reducing their own CO2 emissions so that someone else does not have to. Farm-state representatives ensured that this process will be overseen by the Department of Agriculture, which loves giving money to farmers, rather than the Environmental Protection Agency, which has different priorities.

    The CBO was asked to estimate the bill’s direct costs to consumers in 2020. It came up with a figure of $175 per year, per family. “Less than the cost of a postage stamp a day!” crowed Democrats. But that is an illusion. In 2020 the bill will not yet have started to bite, and the estimate excludes its effect on economic growth.

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    The bill now goes to the Senate, which might make it less protectionist and more supportive of nuclear power. But since the Senate has an even stronger rural bias than the House and requires a supermajority of 60 to avoid filibusters, things could get even messier. Mr Obama needs to find at least $1 trillion to overhaul health care, and those plans now face an uphill battle of their own in the Senate, which looks set for a long hard summer.

    ... contd.

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