The Legislative Assembly results in Maharashtra have come as a terrible blow for the Shiv Sena, with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) breaking the Sena monopoly over Marathi Manoos issues in the state. While the MNS won 13 seats in its debut Assembly election, the Shiv Sena’s tally fell from 63 in 2004 to just 44 seats, two less than its ally, the BJP.

The Shiv Sena’s confrontation with a formidable rival in the shape of the MNS may cause a vertical split in the post-Bal Thackeray political scenario.

A lot will depend on the course Uddhav Thackeray chooses to take for the Shiv Sena. He can become more aggressive and compete with his cousin, MNS chief Raj Thackeray, much against his temperament. Alternatively, he could go ahead and give a new face to the Sena, by broadening its base. However, in that case the Sena would lose both its USP and its cadres, at least till other sections of society feel confident enough to back the party.

Another option, unrealistic given Raj’s evident ambition, would be to team up with his cousin and work out a division of labour, with Uddhav looking after the rural areas and Raj handling the cities. This option is also unrealistic given the fact that it was over basic differences in the direction the party was taking under Uddhav that Raj chose to break away and form his own party.

The crisis in the Sena deepened after Bal Thackeray anointed his softspoken and introverted son, Uddhav, as the executive president in 2003. It came at a time when his nephew, Raj, known to be a rabblerouser, had groomed himself to take over his uncle’s mantle.

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