In Gujarat, Chimanbhai formed JD (Gujarat), continued as CM with Congress support for a while and merged his faction in the Congress. By 1995, only the Congress and BJP remained relevant in Gujarat politics. When the JD withdrew support to him, Shekhawat organised a split in the JD and a faction supported him to continue as chief minister in Rajasthan.

By the mid-1990s, all these states had only two poles — the BJP and Congress. Sharad Yadav, a stalwart in MP in 1977, had to go scouting for a seat in UP or Bihar — two states where the Janata Parivar is still surviving and perhaps thriving. The JD(U) has seven MLAs in Rajasthan and two in Gujarat today. Besides UP, no major state has a genuine triangular contest for power now.

To survive in the middle while the dominant trend is to polarise, is not easy. Gowda’s party has already lost a substantial segment led by Siddaramaiah to the Congress. Sections and interest groups within the JD(S) pull it in opposite directions. To stay afloat, the JD(S) is playing a swing ally’s role.

But changing partners can be extremely dangerous for some, though for some others it means all fun. The BSP, has swung from the SP to BJP to Congress in the last 15 years. At the end of every alliance, the BSP plucked away a segment from its partner. The DMK, that has swung between the BJP and Congress, has remained a part of the power equation always. But unlike other southern outfits that are based on strong regional-ideological moorings and unlike the BSP which is a militant dalit party, Gowda’s JD(S) is a family affair and increasingly so. He runs the risk of losing out completely.

... contd.