Opinion A wide open field

The views of BJP allies may be key to settling the leadership issue.

September 24, 2011 01:37 AM IST First published on: Sep 24, 2011 at 01:37 AM IST

The BJP likes to boast that unlike the Congress,which has a dynastic lien on succession,it has an abundance of potential prime ministerial candidates. But having too many leaders in contention can be problematic. It was to prevent potentially damaging intra-party warfare among rivals that BJP President Nitin Gadkari let it be known that the the partys prime ministerial candidate would be chosen only after the 2014 polls and not before. His statement,clearly with the approval of the RSS,upset the calculations of at least two frontrunners,who have not been too subtle in throwing their hats into the ring.

L.K. Advani was first off the block. He announced that he would be leading a nationwide rath yatra against corruption. He did not take his party into confidence about his plans to occupy centrestage. Despite pushing 83,Advani is not reconciled to being sidelined. In the past,he had twice bowed out of the power struggle only to later re-emerge as a key player in party affairs. The RSS has more than once conveyed to Advani that he must make way for a younger leader. But his ambivalent remarks in Nagpur recently suggest that he still nurses ambitions to emerge as a compromise candidate in case of a deadlock among GenNext leaders.

Just days after Advanis announcement,Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi showed his hand. He declared he would stage a three-day fast for social harmony and unity. Although coming in the wake of a Supreme Court order in a riots case,Modis fast was clearly not just for the benefit of his state. He upped the ante dramatically to make it clear that he had a national,not regional,audience in mind. In the full glare of television cameras he spoke about the need for India to dream big like Gujarat. National BJP leaders from Advani to Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley as well as several party chief ministers showed up to shower praise on him. Akali Dal chief Parkash Singh Badal made an appearance on the dais. So did the MNSs Raj Thackeray,while Jayalalithaa sent two MPs to represent the AIADMK.

In terms of popularity among the BJP cadres,Modi stands far ahead of potential rivals in his party. But this does not necessarily make him the most suitable prime ministerial candidate for the BJP. Modi remains a deeply divisive figure who polarises public opinion. His fans hail his many achievements and his dynamic,development-oriented administration in Gujarat. But,despite his recent efforts to reach out to the minorities,he finds it hard to live down the stigma of the 2002 riots. And he remains a hate figure for many. The Congress would probably be secretly delighted if Modi was declared the official BJP prime ministerial candidate since it believes it would galvanise minority votes totally in its favour. Another of Modis handicaps is that he is unacceptable to key NDA allies,such as the JD(U). They fear that they would lose Muslim votes by being part of an alliance led by Modi. And were the BJP to gain more Lok Sabha seats than the Congress,potential NDA partners would be deterred by Modis leadership. Chandrababu Naidu claims he lost his Muslim vote bank because of his support to the Vajpayee government. Without allies,the BJP can be in no position to form a government at the Centre,its presence being marginal in large parts of the country,including Andhra Pradesh,Kerala,Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Even in Uttar Pradesh,the BJP is in a sorry mess.

Not everyone in Modis own party is rooting for him. Many criticise his lack of team-spirit and autocratic style. Gadkari stayed away from Modis function,so did the chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Swaraj pointedly praised Modis work at the state level but was silent on national aspirations. The RSS may have sent joint general secretary Suresh Soni to the function but Modi is not necessarily its favourite among GenNext.

If the RSS had its way,it would probably opt for Gadkari,who plans to contest a Lok Sabha seat in the next election. If Advani sees an opportunity to emerge as a possible compromise candidate,the Sangh probably views Nagpur boy Gadkari in a similar light.

Actually,there are several dark horses in the party,whose advantage is that they are acceptable to potential NDA allies. This makes betting on the final outcome a tough call. Swaraj and Jaitley,both able leaders in Parliament,cannot be ruled out. The latter has emerged a key party strategist. Nor can other successful chief ministers like Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh be completely ignored. Thakur leader Rajnath Singh was a disaster as party president but he is hoping for a good showing in the UP assembly elections to alter his prospects.

In short,the BJP leadership race is still wide open,and the views of its allies will be a major factor in deciding its prime ministerial candidate.

express@expressindia.com