If the general elections last February were a triumph for Pakistan’s traditionally weak democratic politics, the ouster of Musharraf through peaceful means should mark the welcome consolidation of constitutionalism. Celebrations, however, could be premature. The massive challenges facing Pakistan — a deepening economic crisis, the steady loss of territorial control in the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan, and mounting pressures from the United States to do more against the Taliban and al Qaida — will not diminish in any way after Musharraf’s resignation. His departure, in fact, removes the last political excuse for the non-performance of the civilian government. As the euphoria surrounding Musharraf’s resignation ebbs, the civilian leadership will come under close scrutiny. India, like many other nations, wants Pakistan’s elected leaders to succeed. Only a bold man, however, would bet on it.

New Delhi’s main question about Pakistan, for some time now, has not been Musharraf’s political future. It is about reconciling the civilian leaders’ positive sentiments towards India with the army’s vicious attempts to wreck bilateral ties. The current strains in the peace process can be reduced only when Pakistan’s civilian government exercises effective control over the army and the ISI, and takes charge of the engagement with India. That would indeed be a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s politics. New Delhi’s sceptics would wonder whether Musharraf’s ouster was part of a deal between the government and the army to maintain the latter’s primacy on key national security issues. If that turns out to be true, ties with Pakistan might get a lot worse before they can get better.