If the UPA government does finally decide to approach the International Atomic Energy Agency to approve the safeguards agreement and our communists pull the plug on the government, some of India’s political attention should shift to the Chinese communists.

Until now, Beijing has been in the happy situation of not having to show its cards on the Indo-US civil nuclear initiative. In its formal bilateral talks with the Indian government, Beijing has been delightfully vague. China is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council and the official club of nuclear weapon states recognised by the Non-Proliferation Treaty that has not explicitly supported the nuclear deal. Russia, France and Britain back the Indo-US initiative.

During President Hu Jintao’s visit to New Delhi in November 2006, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s trip to Beijing in January 2008, China has expressed broad interest in civilian nuclear cooperation with India. It has been mum, however, on whether it will support the US effort to change the current rules that bar such cooperation with India.

China can’t duck the issue if the Indo-US nuclear deal moves to the international stage which involves two steps. Under the first, the 35-member board of governors of the IAEA has to approve the safeguards agreement that India has negotiated with its secretariat. In the second, the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group will have to revise its current guidelines on global atomic commerce in favour of India.

China is a leading member of both the IAEA board and the NSG. It will have to take a position on the Indo-US nuclear deal, either for or against. Some Chinese academics, but not officials, have expressed reservations about the deal in the past.

... contd.