After CPM, the CCP

Until now, Beijing has been in the happy situation of not having to show its cards on the Indo-US civil nuclear initiative. In its formal bilateral talks with the Indian government, Beijing has been delightfully vague. China is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council and the official club of nuclear weapon states recognised by the Non-Proliferation Treaty that has not explicitly supported the nuclear deal. Russia, France and Britain back the Indo-US initiative.

During President Hu Jintao’s visit to New Delhi in November 2006, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s trip to Beijing in January 2008, China has expressed broad interest in civilian nuclear cooperation with India. It has been mum, however, on whether it will support the US effort to change the current rules that bar such cooperation with India.

China is a leading member of both the IAEA board and the NSG. It will have to take a position on the Indo-US nuclear deal, either for or against. Some Chinese academics, but not officials, have expressed reservations about the deal in the past.

While it might not like the warming ties between New Delhi and Washington, the CCP is fully aware of the political consequences of opposing the nuclear deal between the two. If China stands up against the deal, it is bound to lose out on the considerable political investment it has made in improving ties with India over the last two decades.

After the fiasco of the UN Security Council expansion a couple of years ago, when Chinese opposition to the Japanese candidature had the effect of blocking India as well, and the recent tensions on the border, Beijing’s open opposition to the nuclear deal will invite a huge political backlash in India. That will be the surest way of pushing India into American arms.

... contd.