While it might not like the warming ties between New Delhi and Washington, the CCP is fully aware of the political consequences of opposing the nuclear deal between the two. If China stands up against the deal, it is bound to lose out on the considerable political investment it has made in improving ties with India over the last two decades.

After the fiasco of the UN Security Council expansion a couple of years ago, when Chinese opposition to the Japanese candidature had the effect of blocking India as well, and the recent tensions on the border, Beijing’s open opposition to the nuclear deal will invite a huge political backlash in India. That will be the surest way of pushing India into American arms.

China will now have to choose between an early and open support to the initiative and winning some political credit for it in India or wait until the very end. Backing the deal when it seems inevitable will give Beijing no brownie points in New Delhi.

Tibet talks

That another round of talks between Beijing and the representatives of the Dalai Lama is taking place is less interesting than the fact that they were announced during the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s visit to Beijing over the weekend.

The Bush Administration has been pressing both the Dalai Lama and Beijing to embark on a productive dialogue. The engagement between the two sides, which began with an informal meeting on May 4 in Southern China, had to be suspended after the tragic earthquake in Sichuan a few days later.

... contd.