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After the dictator, the deluge

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  • The corrupt, dictatorial and long-ailing president of Guinea, Lansana Conte, was once asked about plans for his succession. “There is no question of transition,” he replied firmly. So it was no surprise that when Mr Conte did finally die, at the age of 74 on December 22nd, his country rapidly descended into political chaos.

    The constitutional niceties were observed for just a few hours. The head of the Supreme Court met a clutch of politicians to discuss what to do. It was in fact the National Assembly’s speaker who should have taken charge temporarily, paving the way for an election within 60 days. But the debate was brutally curtailed by an announcement on television and radio that a group of army officers had taken over the government instead. A hitherto unknown captain, Moussa Camara, had formed a junta. It was a swift, bloodless coup d’état.

    It is a testimony to Mr Conte’s 24 years of misrule that the coup was greeted at the least with equanimity by most Guineans. Some, especially the young, were enthusiastic; anything must be better than the old man. Despite Guinea’s huge mineral deposits, Mr Conte had squandered the former French colony’s wealth to such a degree that it is still one of Africa’s poorest countries. Political parties and civic institutions were weakened and legitimate protest squelched, often brutally, by the despotic Mr Conte. It was easy for the army to ignore the constitution on his death.

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    So when Captain Camara promised that his priorities would be rooting out corruption and holding elections by 2010, many of his disillusioned countrymen concurred. It helped the junta consolidate its grip. After briefly opposing the coup, most of Guinea’s sidelined politicians rallied round the captain. The new rulers smartly dismantled the late president’s power base, promptly sacking 22 generals.

    Captain Camara says his government will “renegotiate” contracts with the foreign mining companies that operate in Guinea, the world’s largest exporter of bauxite; it also produces iron ore, gold and diamonds. Yet despite generating more than 60% of the country’s export revenues, the mines provide only 20% of its taxes. A big complaint against Mr Conte was that so much of the mines’ revenue was siphoned off in secret deals with his friends.

    Foreign reaction to the coup has been mixed. Senegal’s regionally influential president, Abdoulaye Wade, urged people to support Guinea’s new government. But the African Union has suspended Guinea’s membership of the organisation until “the return of constitutional order”.

    That may be a long way off. Mr Conte himself came to power in a coup; there is every chance that Captain Camara will be ousted in another before the country holds a fair election. Even those who welcome the coup fear that the new man may turn out to be just another Mr Conte. The only certainty is that Guinea’s political turmoil—and uncertaint—¿will persist.

    © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2008

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