Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. It seems that this truth from the physical world also applies to the realm of power politics. As China realises its full strategic potential, realists have argued that countervailing coalitions will inevitably emerge.

Japan’s decision to sign a new defence declaration with Australia on Monday reflects Tokyo’s growing nervousness at Beijing’s rise as a great power. But the new Asian alignments will not be based on the principle, “either with us or against us”.

Most regional actors are likely to play all sides. Given China’s centrality in Asian geopolitics, “hedging” against the rise of China is becoming the most preferred option, without giving up on the many benefits of engaging Beijing.

The new security pact, signed during Australian Prime Minister John Howard’s visit to Tokyo, is only the second such agreement Japan has concluded since the end of the Second World War.

The Japan-Australia declaration, which calls for continual dialogue between the two defence establishments, military cooperation in peace-keeping and disaster management, is not a formal security alliance of the kind that has existed for decades between the US and Japan as well as Washington and Canberra.

Neither Japan nor Australia wants to ruffle feathers in Beijing. Both have insisted that their expanding military cooperation is not directed against China. To be sure, the bilateral Japan-Australia defence agreement would reinforce the US-Japan alliance and the trilateral security dialogue that was begun a few years ago among Washington, Tokyo and Canberra.

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