Opinion Ahmedinejad,balanced

One lesson from the elections’ aftermath is that a formidable lobby would gladly usurp his power and position. He now must court not simply powerful clerics who sense their authority slipping away,but even his core support base,the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC.

The insider politics of Iran’s political establishment is more defined now than ever before. In a nutshell,the powers of the presidency are being checked. Those taking this on? A family called “Iran’s Kennedys”: the influential and Khomeini-approved Larijani brothers,who command the reins of two out of the three branches of government.

The most formidable challenge comes from Ali,the eldest — though it’s Sadegh who now heads the judiciary. Ali stood for president,and then was Ahmedinejad’s chief nuclear negotiator until he quit due to “irreconcilable differences”. Now,as the speaker of parliament,he has vetted Ahmedinejad’s cabinet choices and blocked some appointments. Sadegh,too,has the authority to make Ahmedinejad’s life difficult: the judiciary he runs has oversight over the political arrests made after the election protests,and over the accompanying accusations of rape and torture.

The conservative Larijanis favour some sort of rapprochement with the West as do many other,more moderate,clerics. But what of the military men?

Post election,the motives of the IGRC surfaced for the first time. They regard themselves as the true keepers of the Iranian revolution,a calling hallowed through their service in the Iran-Iraq war. It is their support that has allowed Ahmedinejad to grow. He comes from their ranks,and — although the facts are vague — it is generally believed they pushed him to the presidency in 2005. In his new cabinet,defence and intelligence are the IRGC’s. Their current loyalty to him is evident through their involvement in restoring “order” after the disputed elections. General Yadollah Javani,political head of the IGRC claimed that “today,no one is impartial. There are two currents; those who defend and support the revolution and establishment,and those who are trying to topple it.”

One questions: who are the ones trying to topple it? Are the reformists the ones that threaten the principles of the revolution? But what of the reformists’ own churning? The simple answer is that the entire political climate in Iran is undergoing radical changes. Karim Sadjadpour of Carnegie maintains that shifts in the political spectrum can be seen at various levels of the bureaucracy. For instance,“ten years ago,the Larijanis would have been considered arch-hardliners; but the spectrum has moved so far right in recent years that now,compared with Ahmedinejad,they appear somewhat moderate.”

So,ultimately it looks like the guards against the clerics. And it’s Ahmedinejad’s uneasy role to reconcile the two opposing factions.

So,as 5+1 talks resume,remember Ahmedinejad is no longer the supremo dictating terms inside Iran we’re accustomed to thinking him — but rather point man for a divided elite,shuffling between two powerful factions.

alia.allana@expressindia.com