The India-US nuclear agreement is not yet a done deal. US President George Bush has to convince the US Congress to amend an existing domestic law, which bans nuclear cooperation with countries like India, which have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The July agreement allows India to buy nuclear fuel and technology from the US for its civilian programme, provided it separates its civilian and military facilities and allows inspections on the former.

Past experience shows that the Congress will buy any deal that emphasises reductions in threats to US security, and increases American influence. However, Bush will not have an easy ride for two reasons. First, his own credibility is at an all-time low. Second, Congressmen are worried about the negative security implications of this agreement for the US. One lawmaker has already threatened to introduce legislation against the amendment.

Bush’s only option is to change the threat parameters and sell the deal as a lesser evil. For that he has to follow a two-track policy: behind closed doors, play the ‘India as a counterweight to an expansionist China’ card; in open briefings emphasise the economic, energy, security benefits to the US.

Why play the China card? Because US lawmakers have always seen China as a direct challenger to US interests in Asia. China’s heavy military spending, growing economic power and sabre-rattling on Taiwanese unification have heightened these fears. In talking about China, Bush would merely be playing on age-old congressional fears. Halting terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and Chicom (Chinese communist) hegemony have always jostled for the top three slots. China’s own behaviour strengthens Bush’s gameplan. Since China has engaged in nuclear proliferation to unreliable states like North Korea, Pakistan and Iran, US congressmen would not be averse to viewing the Indo-US agreement as a lesser evil and a step in strengthening a regional rival.

... contd.