A two-thirds majority is needed to win; that’s 128 votes to triumph, or 64 votes to defeat one’s rival. The voting goes on until a candidate reaches the magic number; there is an unwritten rule that after three rounds, previous commitments are withdrawn and everything goes. Actually, everything goes most of the time: promises are broken, votes are bought and betrayal is common. All of this occurs because the stakes are high, and higher in Latin America than at any time since 1979, when Fidel Castro attempted to win the seat, claiming that Cuba, being chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement, was entitled to membership. The US blocked Castro, using Colombia as a stalking horse, and Mexico was elected as a compromise candidate. This time, things might be more complicated.
The risk for the US is real. Chavez would probably occupy the seat personally for extended periods at a time, in lieu of his permanent representative or his foreign minister. He would use that magnificent pulpit to glorify his Bolivarian Revolution, to help his friends in Latin America and to thwart his enemies — Bush, incoming president Felipe Calderon in Mexico, and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.
Most significant, he would get directly involved in many of the issues the Security Council will have to address in the next two years, including sanctions against Iran. No wonder Washington and other capitals are terrified at the prospect.
But it is not clear that there is much they can do about it. Guatemala claims it has 90 committed votes. Attrition -- a euphemism for promises unkept—and Chavez’s oil-fueled largesse mean that number is likely to shrink. The only chance to keep Chavez out of Dag Hammarskjold Plaza is to lock in a blocking third of the votes indefinitely, and hope that, like 37 years ago, the Latin American group will seek a compromise.
It won’t be easy: Cuba, Brazil and Argentina all support Venezuela. Even Chile probably will, and the only major countries behind Guatemala are Mexico and Colombia. Chavez has not helped himself by wondering out loud in Havana if Mexico’s elections were free and fair, and whether he will recognize Calderon’s victory. The question is, though, if anyone else in the region wants to face his wrath and meddling by finding a way out of the quagmire. Right now only Uruguay and the Dominican Republic qualify as acceptable alternatives; but the last thing Presidents Leonel Fernandez or Tabare Vazquez probably want is to mess with Hugo.
So the betting right now is on Venezuela, and against Washington. It would be an uphill fight for the US under any circumstances, but it’s almost an impossible one given Bush’s unpopularity in what was once known as the Third World. Most of its members just met in Havana, and they don’t like 43; they don’t like Israel, they don’t like Tony Blair and they certainly don’t like US policy in Iraq and Iran. The American ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, has his work cut out for him.
Castaneda is Global Distinguished Professor of Politics and Latin American Studies at New York University
