The risk for the US is real. Chavez would probably occupy the seat personally for extended periods at a time, in lieu of his permanent representative or his foreign minister. He would use that magnificent pulpit to glorify his Bolivarian Revolution, to help his friends in Latin America and to thwart his enemies — Bush, incoming president Felipe Calderon in Mexico, and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.

Most significant, he would get directly involved in many of the issues the Security Council will have to address in the next two years, including sanctions against Iran. No wonder Washington and other capitals are terrified at the prospect.

But it is not clear that there is much they can do about it. Guatemala claims it has 90 committed votes. Attrition -- a euphemism for promises unkept—and Chavez’s oil-fueled largesse mean that number is likely to shrink. The only chance to keep Chavez out of Dag Hammarskjold Plaza is to lock in a blocking third of the votes indefinitely, and hope that, like 37 years ago, the Latin American group will seek a compromise.

It won’t be easy: Cuba, Brazil and Argentina all support Venezuela. Even Chile probably will, and the only major countries behind Guatemala are Mexico and Colombia. Chavez has not helped himself by wondering out loud in Havana if Mexico’s elections were free and fair, and whether he will recognize Calderon’s victory. The question is, though, if anyone else in the region wants to face his wrath and meddling by finding a way out of the quagmire. Right now only Uruguay and the Dominican Republic qualify as acceptable alternatives; but the last thing Presidents Leonel Fernandez or Tabare Vazquez probably want is to mess with Hugo.

... contd.