All for a seat alongside the ‘devil’ at UN

But it is not clear that there is much they can do about it. Guatemala claims it has 90 committed votes. Attrition -- a euphemism for promises unkept—and Chavez’s oil-fueled largesse mean that number is likely to shrink. The only chance to keep Chavez out of Dag Hammarskjold Plaza is to lock in a blocking third of the votes indefinitely, and hope that, like 37 years ago, the Latin American group will seek a compromise.

It won’t be easy: Cuba, Brazil and Argentina all support Venezuela. Even Chile probably will, and the only major countries behind Guatemala are Mexico and Colombia. Chavez has not helped himself by wondering out loud in Havana if Mexico’s elections were free and fair, and whether he will recognize Calderon’s victory. The question is, though, if anyone else in the region wants to face his wrath and meddling by finding a way out of the quagmire. Right now only Uruguay and the Dominican Republic qualify as acceptable alternatives; but the last thing Presidents Leonel Fernandez or Tabare Vazquez probably want is to mess with Hugo.

Castaneda is Global Distinguished Professor of Politics and Latin American Studies at New York University