All hopes on rabi after drought pulls kharif crop down by 18%

As against 117.7 million tonnes of foodgrain produced in the last kharif,estimates indicated that this year the output would be somewhere around 96.63 million tonnes.

The estimates projected an 18 per cent shortfall in rice — from 84.58 million tonnes to about 69.45 million tonnes — and a 20 per cent shortfall in coarse cereals,from 28.34 million tonnes to about 22.76 million tonnes. Pulses,which contribute little in the kharif output,was also estimated to be down by about 37 per cent.

According to the estimates,oilseeds output this year is likely to be down by about 15 per cent,from 178.82 million tonnes to about 152.33 million tonnes. This is attributed to the decline in the output of groundnut (-19.67%) and Soyabean (-9.8%).

However,production of cotton is estimated to be marginally up (+2.16%) from 231.56 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) last year to about 236.57 lakh bales this year.

With sugar prices already ruling high,estimates suggested a 9 per cent decline in the output of sugarcane from 2739.31 million tonnes last year to about 2494.82 million tonnes this year.

While the decline in kharif output is because of deficient monsoon this year — paddy sowing area was down by 60 lakh hectares — late rains brought some cheer with the government hoping that it would help the rabi crop.

Estimates indicated the government’s foodgrain target for rabi is about 114 million tonnes as against 116 million tonnes last year.