Opinion All set for Copenhagen
India should table its plan only if developed countries make proper commitments....
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The Copenhagen Conference of the Parties is expected to be a major turning point in negotiations and action dealing with global climate change. While the time available for arriving at a binding legal agreement seems limited,there is every reason to hope that we would reach an outcome that significantly advances global action to deal with both adaptation to the impacts of climate change and mitigation to limit the spread of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Between 1970 and 2004 these emissions increased by 70 per cent as stated in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It was also assessed on the basis of observations that temperature increase and other related manifestations of climate change have become far more intense in recent years. For instance,the IPCC AR4 concluded: Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature. Similarly sea level rise which was taking place at a rate of 1.8 mm/ year before 1993 increased to 3.1 mm/ year thereafter. Overall,average surface temperature increase during the 20th century amounted to 0.74 degrees Celsius and average sea level rise 17 cm.
The major reasons for urgent and effective action to deal with both adaptation and mitigation measures for dealing with climate change arise from a number of scientific realities. First,the impacts of climate change are going to get progressively more serious,and already in some parts of the world existing vulnerabilities increase the possibility of socio-economic and political disruption,and in some cases even pose a threat to the existence of human society and,in fact,all living species. Particularly vulnerable are the small island states and low-lying coastal areas as well as those regions which are already in a condition of water stress. Climate change is also resulting in an increase in frequency,intensity and duration of floods,droughts,heat-waves and extreme precipitation events. In addition,climate change is already showing a negative impact on agricultural yields and productivity in several locations. In India there is growing evidence,based on current research,of agricultural yields declining on account of climate change,particularly in wheat and some other foodgrains. As changes in the climate become more serious,these impacts would affect human society far more seriously.
It is,therefore,essential for the global community to mount adequate efforts by which we can stabilise the earths climate system by stabilising the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earths atmosphere. This would require major reduction in emissions in the coming years. The IPCC had,in
fact,assessed that to stabilise temperature increase between 2.0 and 2.4 degrees Celsius,global emissions would have to peak no later than 2015. This is why the developed world should take firm action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions adequately by 2020. Indeed,such an approach would be consistent with the recent G-8 decision to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius.
Since the problem of climate change results from increased concentration of GHGs,historical responsibility for this condition is overwhelmingly with the developed countries,where industrialisation began and continued with increasing use of fossil fuels. The clause of common but differentiated responsibility included in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is in recognition of the larger responsibility which developed countries hold in mitigating emissions before requiring the developing countries to do so. Unfortunately,the record of the developed countries has been less than adequate and in some cases totally negligible. Yet,there are now pressures being created particularly on the emerging markets to come up with commitments on their part in preparation for Copenhagen. For a variety of reasons China has already announced a 40 per cent reduction in the ratio of emissions to GDP by 2020 over 2005 levels. The pressure on India is,therefore,going to be substantial,and the Indian delegation would have to go to Copenhagen with a clear plan in its hip pocket.
The prime minister and the government deserve high praise for having come up with the National Action Plan on Climate Change,which consists of eight separate missions. The cabinet has already approved of the Solar Energy Mission,which among other actions envisages 20,000 MW of solar capacity being established by 2021-22. This is an ambitious target,but one which is entirely in the interest of India to pursue. The reality is that Indias energy security depends substantially on timely and large-scale development of renewable sources of energy. India has a growing gap in terms of demand for fossil fuels and indigenous production and supply. It is expected that even with current plans,as early as 2014 the country may have to import 100 million tonnes of coal for producing power from the plants that are planned to be set up. By 2031-32,if we continue with business as usual we would be importing 1400 million tonnes of coal and 750 million tonnes of oil according to TERIs rigorous modelling exercises. Business as usual,therefore,is no option as far as Indias energy policy is concerned. It is in some sense fortunate that under the National Action Plan on Climate Change India is moving towards a higher level of energy security,an inevitability which we would perhaps have missed otherwise.
Given these facts,if the rest of the world is willing to move on and commits to doing so on a timely and adequate basis,India should pull out its National Action Plan,and particularly the Solar Energy Mission,as our contribution to meeting the global challenge of climate change. This plan should be pulled out of our hip pocket,however,only if the developed world commits adequate reduction of GHG emissions,a serious level of financial transfer to help developing countries in adaptation and mitigation measures and some means to provide easier access to specific technologies. Copenhagen could then mark a major turning point not only in global actions to meet the challenge of climate change,but perhaps a starting point for India to focus on actions that would ensure energy security and a commensurate assurance of healthy and uninterrupted economic growth.
The writer is director-general,The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI),chairman,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and director,Yale Climate & Energy Institute
express@expressindia.com
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