We have it on the authority of Kasuri that significant progress has occurred in the bilateral negotiations on J&K, and only five persons in Pakistan are aware of the detail. Probably even fewer on the Indian side are involved in these negotiations. The closed nature of these talks on Kashmir does not necessarily mean they are opaque. The broad contours of a settlement on J&K is probably the most open secret in New Delhi and Islamabad. For any one who has carefully analysed the many media interviews of Pervez Musharraf and the few remarks that Manmohan Singh has made, twice over in Amritsar during the last year, it is not too difficult to figure out what is going on.

The solution under discussion for J&K has five broad elements: no change in territorial disposition in J&K, autonomy/self-governance to both Indian and Pakistani controlled parts of the state, open borders, a cross-border consultative mechanism among the Kashmiris, and finally force reductions coupled to an end to cross-terrorism. What are being negotiated, it is learnt, are the second order issues. To be sure, the devil is always in the detail. And much ground needs to be covered on converting agreed ideas into mutually acceptable definitions.

Sequencing of various steps, too, is always a problem in a complex negotiation. In terms of the diplomatic strategy, the prime minister is confronted with a choice. He could go either for a big-bang approach or settle for incremental progress. The conservative instinct in the system is naturally biased to the latter course. An incremental approach, however, would mean relying on negotiations between the two bureaucracies which, by their very nature, only know how to slow things down. Just consider the difficulties the two establishments are having on such a simple issue as offering reasonable mobility to each other’s diplomats in and around the capital cities. Or the lack of progress in liberalising the visa regime. We don’t even have to mention how the security establishments on the two sides have consistently undercut a potential settlement of the Siachen question.

... contd.