The Bali conference will at best clear doubts on what the posturing is going to be about. Anyone can see the obvious — the Bali conference is going to be a failure. Of course, some consensus statement will be put out, some MOUs may also be signed, and promises to meet again shortly and further engage on the topic will also be made. The result therefore is going to be continued emissions at increased rates.

What is the problem really? There are two related points. First is the now incontrovertible fact that human activity is leading to emission of certain gases, like CO2 and methane, that are contributing to the heating up of the earth. We have already released so much of it that even if we stopped doing so as of now, the earth will keep on warming up for the next few decades. However, current trends do not merely show an increase, but an acceleration in greenhouse gas emissions. A good international agreement would therefore aim to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, not just reduce emissions.

An agreement based on having international per capita carbon emission benchmarks will not solve the problem, but merely delay the full extent of the negative impact. Take for instance the case of India, China and the US. Roughly, India and China have a combined population of 2.5 billion and the US has 300 million. Suppose the Bali conference is so wildly successful that the US agrees to halve its emissions to 10 tonnes per capita per year from the current figure of 20 tonnes. US annual emissions will therefore go down to about 3000 million tonnes per year. But then India and China would go on increasing theirs from 1 and 4 currently to the 10 tonnes per person per year potentially agreed upon. Overall global emissions would consequently be far higher in the future, even after the pact.

... contd.