Opinion Always a step behind

That the Internet has played such an important role in this incident may come as a surprise to those who have long believed that the Chinese state has so perfected the “Great Firewall of China” that it is capable of censoring the Internet at will. To be fair,those who have given up on the Internet’s potential as a democratising instrument have good reason to be pessimistic. Ever since the advent of the information revolution,the Communist Party has grasped its political threat and devoted enormous resources to the development of a sophisticated system to contain its political impact. For instance,the Chinese Public Security Ministry,which is responsible for internal security,has established specialised branches in charge of Internet security. A secret organisation,popularly dubbed the Net Police,was formed and tasked with the responsibility of censoring the Internet. Advanced technologies,many of them imported from the West,were deployed to filter the content on the net. Chinese Internet service providers (ISPs) were recruited to join the censorship effort (on pains of losing their business licence). These ISPs employed monitors who “patrolled” online message boards and forums and deleted content deemed politically harmful. To manipulate public opinion,the party reportedly hired tens of thousands of people who would be paid the equivalent of 8 cents for each pro-government comment they posted on the net.

The upshot of Beijing’s vast investments in countering the information revolution is that,contrary to the initial expectations that the information revolution would undermine the Chinese regime’s control of information flow,the Chinese Communist Party appeared to have achieved the impossible: have its cake and eat it,too. China has not only seen the growth of the Internet as a dynamic economic sector,but also managed to control it politically.

This conclusion,as shown by the recent anti-government firestorm on the Internet over the train crash,is both premature and incorrect.

The truth about the Internet and its political effects in China is far more complicated. While it is true that the Chinese government has developed and maintained its capacity to impose a sophisticated censorship regime,its censorship is far from effective. In fact,because the Communist Party is fighting the equivalent of an information insurgency,it is perpetually on the defensive. It reacts,often after a considerable time lag,to the political initiatives taken by countless Chinese individuals who want to challenge the power of the state and break its monopoly on the flow of information.

One can draw two insights from this situation. First,the Chinese state cannot win this information war. Like conventional insurgents,Chinese netizens win by not losing. In this case,as long as Beijing allows the Internet,the netizens will never lose. Second,even though the Chinese government,when fully determined,always manages to block and stifle the discussion of sensitive political topics on the Internet,its bureaucracy can never react fast or nimbly enough to suppress the dissemination of information or discussion of public policy issues that undermine the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party.

Take,for example,the issue of corruption. Given the pervasiveness of corruption among Chinese officials,instances of official malfeasance occur daily — and provide fuel for public ire. Even though the party is not willing to advertise its own failings,it is helpless in preventing the Internet from exposing,regularly,scandals involving party officials (for example,the former head of the railway ministry was recently arrested for corruption). The cumulative political effect of the Internet’s coverage of the systemic rot inside the Chinese government and its ruling party can only be political delegitimisation. Such routine muckraking does not spark an instant revolution,but it does erode the party’s credibility,slowly but surely.

What the political aftermath of China’s bullet train crash revealed is that the Internet in China has acquired another important political function: enforcing political accountability on a one-party state. Without China’s aggressive netizens,it is unimaginable that the Communist Party would have caved in to public pressure,sacked railway officials,and doubled compensation for the victims. What is encouraging is that this is not the first time that a powerful government retreated in face of strong public opinion. Many similar incidents have occurred in the past.

The Chinese Communist Party’s less-than-happy experience with the Internet serves as a powerful reminder to all governments in the world,including democratic ones: you can never win against a population empowered by the information revolution — and should never try.

The writer is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in the US
express@expressindia.com