Opinion American exit?

The eagerness to see the Americans depart comes largely from those in Pakistan who have been waiting long to establish Rawalpindi’s suzerainty in Afghanistan. The former ISI chief,Lt. Gen. Hameed Gul,for example,says that the “Osama drama” was all about US President Barack Obama’s desperation to find an honourable way out of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s conspiracy theories apart,there indeed are many in Washington,in the administration and outside,who think that after a decade of occupation,it is time for American troops to vacate Afghanistan.

It is in response to this political sentiment,especially in the liberal wing of his Democratic Party,that President Barack Obama announced in December 2009 specific timelines for scaling down US operations. There have also been some on the conservative side who question the wisdom of spending more than $150 billion a year on military operations in Afghanistan.

After Osama’s death,the White House has said that the president’s plans to begin reduction of troops in July 2011 and end all combat operations in Afghanistan by 2014 remain on track. Do underline the words “begin” and “combat” — in July,the initial reductions could be very minimal and cosmetic that will allow the president to tell liberals that he is not breaking his promise. What has been set for 2014 is not the full withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan but an end to their “combat operations”. The plans drawn up before Osama’s killing made it clear that US forces will retain a training and advisory role. The indications were also that Washington might be planning a long-term military presence in Afghanistan and is negotiating terms with Kabul in a new bilateral agreement on strategic partnership.

That Obama will quickly run for the door in Afghanistan after killing bin Laden may be wishful thinking. With his new image as the “warrior president”,a surge in his popularity since the weekend,and some new leverage vis-a-vis the Pakistan army,Obama has a lot more flexibility in reframing his Afghan strategy. What a newly self-confident Washington might do in the Af-Pak region between now and 2014 is probably more relevant for India than when exactly Obama might choose to quit.

Friends of Taliban

Those in Pakistan who can’t wait to see the Americans leave are also keen to promote an early political deal with the Taliban. The Pakistan army has long insisted that peace in Afghanistan is possible only through a political accommodation with the Taliban.

Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani had offered himself as an “honest broker” between the US and the Taliban. After being caught with its pants down in Abbottabad,the Pakistan army’s honesty and credibility as an impartial interlocutor will be doubted by even the most credulous in Washington. The Taliban itself has given no reason to suggest it is interested in peace,except on its own terms. It wants the American troops out before talks can begin. A day before bin Laden was killed,the Taliban announced its plans for the spring offensive that will focus on foreign troops and government officials. After the killing of bin Laden,there is an expectation that it will be easier for Mullah Omar and other leaders to distance the organisation from al-Qaeda — one of the main demands of the Obama administration.

The Western friends of the Taliban also say the outfit has no trans-border ideological orientation — leave them free to govern the south and east of Afghanistan,they will not bother anybody in the world. Many in Washington are indeed eager to engage the Taliban,but not everyone is buying the view of the Taliban as a crazy bunch of local yokels led astray by bin Laden. Some like Gen. David Petraeus,commander of US and international forces in Afghanistan,believe the Taliban must be weakened much further before opening talks.

Head of the snake

After the death of bin Laden and the exposure of the Pakistan army’s double dealings,Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai also has a little more room to play. Less than three weeks ago,Karzai was under great pressure from Kayani to accept Pakistan army’s terms for the end-game in Afghanistan.

Now he has every reason to look at the Western leaders and say “I told you so”. For many years now,Karzai has argued that the sources of his nation’s insurgency,much like bin Laden,were not in Afghanistan,but in Pakistan. His argument that hitting the head of the snake in Pakistan is more important than fighting the tail in Afghanistan should resonate a little better in Washington now.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi