Musharraf’s willingness to brush off US advice against imposing an emergency suggests that he believes that this history of according priority to the war on terrorism will continue, especially now that the security situation in Afghanistan has worsened. Moreover, Musharraf is well aware that George W. Bush, a ‘lame duck’ president with a low popular approval rating, would be reluctant to get tough with a person whose policies can make the difference between success and failure of the effort to contain a surging radicalism in Afghanistan. Fighting the Al Qaeda/Taliban in Afghanistan has added importance given the highly tentative situation in Iraq. The fight in Afghanistan continues to receive popular support in the US while that in Iraq does not. But Musharraf’s ability to exploit this vulnerability is short-lived. A new US President will not have the same personal stake in the tactics adopted by George W. Bush. Both likely Democrat nominees, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, are openly critical of Musharraf.

Public criticism of Musharraf inside the US has been on the rise for the past year and the emergency declaration has reinforced scepticism about him. Senator Biden, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a statement that the US needs to focus relations on Pakistan as a country and not on its current leader, a subtle way of saying that we are neutral on who is in charge. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated publicly that the US would review its huge assistance programme to Pakistan, which amounts to about one hundred and fifty million dollars a month, with the cumulative amount so far about eleven billion dollars.

... contd.