The dilemma is how to exercise influence on Musharraf. While unpopular at home, he still has the all-important support of the military. He has appointed the regional corps commanders and they apparently remain loyal to him. The military, a corporate institution with a strong sense of its mission as guarantor of the country’s security, will determine the pace of political change for many years to come. While Musharraf has low popular approval ratings, his opposition is divided and there is no political figure acceptable as a leader to the various groups opposing him. Cutting off all assistance and contacts with the military establishment is a sure way of becoming irrelevant to it. That was tried once before with the nuclear-related Pressler Amendment sanctions imposed in the early 1990s resulting in a cut-off of American military and economic assistance. The result was a virtual disappearance of any American influence with the military and a generation of Pakistani officers lacking contacts with their American counterparts.

Two possibilities exist to nudge Musharraf to return to a democratic process. One is to condition the level of assistance on specific steps to restore democracy, a proposal that has considerable support within the US Congress and the influential US press. Pakistan is heavily dependent economically on US largesse and a substantial cut would have an adverse impact. Secondly, the US could work with the Saudis and China, two countries probably with even greater influence on Musharraf than the US, to nudge Pakistan back toward a more democratic path. While these two countries have no real commitment to democracy themselves, they may understand that a democratic future in Pakistan would produce a more stable country. For both, a stable Pakistan is important for strategic reasons. They probably worry that the emergency proclamation puts President Musharraf on a confrontation course with the entire opposition, a situation that could trigger increased radical violence. Even before the emergency proclamation, radical religiously-inspired violence was on the rise. In fact, the surge in such violence was Musharraf’s justification for the imposition of the emergency. It is, in fact, a danger that could lap over into both Saudi Arabia and China.

... contd.