Amongst allies

In assessing Barack Obamas ambiguous response on Wednesday to a blunt question from an Afghan woman journalist about Pakistans role in fomenting instability in Afghanistan and beyond,India can agree with the US presidents diagnosis but must wonder if he can administer a demanding regimen on an unwilling patient. Delhi naturally welcomes Obamas assertion,at a joint press conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the White House,that the existential threats to Islamabad come not from India but the cancer of violent extremism that is growing in Pakistans body politic. India,however,has reasons to question his claim that he is persuading Islamabad to swallow some of the bitter medicine. More broadly,it is hard to fathom Obamas Af-Pak policy that points fingers at its partners in Afghanistan,but panders to the Pakistan army which provides sanctuaries to terrorists determined to destabilise Afghanistan.

Since he took charge in January 2009,Obamas top foreign policy aides have developed a surreal logic that declares Karzai the problem in Afghanistan and Pakistans army chief,General Ashfaq Kayani,the solution. Consequently,Washington put Karzai on short leash and cut a lot of slack to Kayani. Washingtons red carpet welcome to Karzai this week does not appear to have altered the basics of Obamas Af-Pak policy. There was nothing in the Obama-Karzai press conference to suggest that the gulf between the two leaders on the tactics of counter-insurgency,the strategy of engaging the Taliban,and Pakistans role in the Afghan peace process have been bridged.

Obamas reluctance to offend Kayani and Washingtons rush to walk back from the threatening noises made by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after the links between the Times Square bombing plot and the Pakistani Taliban came to light a few days ago underline two important realities. The US dependence on the Pakistan army to achieve any objective in Afghanistan is real and probably cannot be reduced in any significant manner. The US pressure on Pakistan to do more against terrorist groups on its soil runs into some big demands of Kayani,who insists that his army remain India-centric in its threat perceptions and exaggerates Delhis role in Afghanistan. Kayani wants Obama to deliver India on a range of issues including Kashmir and give his army a free hand in shaping Afghanistans future. The next few days will show how far Obama will go in accommodating Kayani. Delhi,then,should be fully prepared for a situation where Obama delivers more candies to Kayani in the hope of subjecting the Pakistan army to some unpleasant therapy at some unknown future date.