An organisation shaped hole

“We mounted a spirited campaign throughout which we witnessed a great deal of goodwill and support towards our party. But organisationally we were not able to transform that goodwill into votes.” Sonia Gandhi, on May 16, 2007, after the party’s rout in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election.

In the three years that separate these two speeches, the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre has been on an overdrive to win over the aam aadmi through enhanced spending in welfare. Spending on education trebled from Rs 12,000 crore to Rs 32,000 crore and for health and family welfare the allocation more than doubled during these three years, from Rs 7,620 crore to Rs 17,560 crore. Funding for agriculture and rural development also trebled, from around Rs 20,000 crore to over Rs 60,000 crore. A good chunk of these welfare allocations has gone to states such as UP and Bihar where the Congress is virtually non-existent. However, the Congress has not been able to claim any political dividend. At best, the aam aadmi has some goodwill for the Congress, but goodwill doesn’t necessarily win elections. The Congress does not have a mechanism to tell the aam aadmi that economic reforms, growth and welfare are mutually complementary and one cannot happen in the absence or failure of the others.

There are broadly two set of factors that could favour the Congress in the event of an election. First, what can be called the aam aadmi schemes that could connect the party to the sections of society that have been unhappy with the Congress since the early 1990s. The second is the external political environment — that includes the BJP governments in crucial states facing anti-incumbency and UPA allies clinging to the Congress for tactical considerations. These objective conditions could theoretically help the Congress in improving its position. The Indian Express-CNN IBN-CSDS survey that predicted an increase in Congress strength if an election were to take place today was partly a reflection of the goodwill for the party and partly arising out of the favourable environmental factors.

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