There are broadly two set of factors that could favour the Congress in the event of an election. First, what can be called the aam aadmi schemes that could connect the party to the sections of society that have been unhappy with the Congress since the early 1990s. The second is the external political environment — that includes the BJP governments in crucial states facing anti-incumbency and UPA allies clinging to the Congress for tactical considerations. These objective conditions could theoretically help the Congress in improving its position. The Indian Express-CNN IBN-CSDS survey that predicted an increase in Congress strength if an election were to take place today was partly a reflection of the goodwill for the party and partly arising out of the favourable environmental factors.

Congress optimism may therefore be justified to a large extent but needs to be qualified given the organisational weaknesses that have only worsened in recent years. One can flag a few of these.

‘That concerns the government’ is the stock reply of Congress spokespersons on a wide-range of issues, repeatedly exposing a disconnect between the organisation and government. In the first two years of the UPA government, Sonia Gandhi wrote at least twice to Congress ministers that they must visit the district party offices in the places that they visit, but this instruction has rarely been followed. In mid-2006, in the midst of the party’s confusion on the OBC reservation issue, it was decided that MoS in the PMO Prithviraj Chauhan and party media department chairman Janardan Dwivedi would meet every week so that the government and organisational wings of the party function in tandem. Evidently it has not yielded results. As the Ram Setu affidavit controversy raged last week, the party had nothing to say because it was a ‘governmental matter.’

... contd.