How does one interpret the massive victory of the BJP in the assembly elections of Jammu and Kashmir? Is it simply the communal polarisation of the Jammu region — a direct impact of the religious mobilisation during Amarnath land agitation? Certainly the BJP’s gain, from one seat in 2002 to eleven now — all in the Hindu-dominated belt of the region — has a reflection of the agitation, and yet the verdict is not as straight as it seems to be.

To begin with, the Hindu belt has not exclusively gone to the BJP; there are many significant exceptions where the party has lost. Of these, the most interesting is the case of Bishnah where it had fielded the widow of Kuldeep Verma, whose suicide during the agitation had generated an intense response in Jammu. It was this constituency which Gujarat CM Narender Modi had chosen to campaign for. This epicentre of the agitation could not be returned to the BJP. There were many other constituencies that had witnessed a strong emotional response during the agitation — such as, Kathua, Samba, Vijaypur and Akhnoor — that remained constantly in the news during the agitation, but did not return the BJP. Another constituency where the BJP faced a setback was Gandhi Nagar, the urban heartland of Jammu where Nirmal Singh, the erstwhile party president, was contesting. Nowshera, Billawar, Ramnagar, Udhampur, Chenani, Chhamb were the other constituencies which saw the mobilisation during the agitation but remained out of the BJP fold.

Interestingly, some of these seats have gone not only to the Congress and the local Panthers Party, but also to the National Conference — a party against which negative campaigns were launched in these areas, and the statement made by Omar Abdullah in Parliament was used to whip up frenzy against the Kashmiri leadership. That the impact of such campaigning had not gone deep could be seen soon after the election process began — the flags of the NC were all over the place.

... contd.